World Politics · resolved market
Will Nigel Farage win 40–50% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1878d44f6d9cd2ad2101df8c34037ffe4d56a048980ff1410c64e559a58d5fbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,358
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,358 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 1c | 6,529$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 6,252$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 169 | 1.8%3 W · 166 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b58…fe64backed Yes | 9c | 6,146$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,446$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed Yes | 2c | 1,546$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 2c | 999.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb69…361ebacked Yes | 8c | 589.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 2c | 565.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 3c | 466.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4257…009bbacked Yes | 8c | 360$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…30eabacked Yes | 6c | 212.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 58c | 196.27$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.43 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | +28.4wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe856…3789backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nigel Farage win 40–50% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?this page
- Will Nigel Farage win 50–60% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?No won
- Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Yes won
- Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?No won
- Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?No won
- Will Nigel Farage win less than 40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.