World Politics · resolved market
Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae341ea8a55bc9391a0deaca1897ac1db0bdeb074ea022f988d53dcb5d09bad9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $601,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $625,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $601,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 207 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7b3…2b3abacked Yes | 46c | 388,828$180,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180,510.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed No | 47c | 102,659$48,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54,085.96 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +138.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8c…e36fbacked No | 59c | 91,453$54,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,285.16 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 68c | 40,323$27,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,959.75 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 45c | 25,000$11,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,650 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…0288backed No | 47c | 24,000$11,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,786.14 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +8.3wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 58c | 20,677$12,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,663.38 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…bd09backed No | 54c | 20,142$10,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,265.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…6621backed No | 55c | 16,000$8,735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,265 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +180.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 56c | 13,306$7,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,792.46 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae7…561fbacked Yes | 0c | 13,295$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…29ccbacked No | 59c | 12,042$7,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,968.48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed No | 52c | 11,366$5,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,461.54 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…92cbbacked No | 61c | 10,000$6,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,900 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x500a…c8e4backed Yes | 10c | 8,220$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 10c | 6,880$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.07 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +168.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…f0fbbacked No | 66c | 6,157$4,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,090.65 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +181.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked No | 79c | 5,752$4,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,207.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed No | 52c | 4,600$2,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,208 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f2…e1c1backed No | 74c | 4,330$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed No | 54c | 4,082$2,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,891.98 | 142 | 40.8%58 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…822abacked Yes | 42c | 3,990$1,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,681.97 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 71c | 3,955$2,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150.34 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ac…7f76backed No | 61c | 3,946$2,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,528.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 72c | 2,955$2,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.62 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x825c…dfa0backed Yes | 16c | 2,887$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +159.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0414…be21backed Yes | 16c | 2,529$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.15 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 32c | 2,300$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.97 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…af79backed Yes | 24c | 2,182$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.1 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed No | 67c | 2,069$1,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.66 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 75c | 2,026$1,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.61 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,018$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 100 | 38%38 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb48b…04ebbacked No | 61c | 2,000$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 17c | 2,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed Yes | 19c | 1,945$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.34 | 110 | 20.9%23 W · 87 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 62c | 1,879$1,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.26 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 13c | 1,671$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.75 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa43d…00f4backed No | 70c | 1,523$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.71 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5605…a9efbacked No | 73c | 1,512$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…e8f6backed No | 63c | 1,284$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.7 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +922.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 58c | 1,203$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.34 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…f250backed Yes | 39c | 1,200$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96f7…d6aebacked No | 69c | 1,200$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 46c | 1,157$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.68 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed Yes | 36c | 1,075$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.76 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 53c | 1,072$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.83 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x598e…9d4fbacked No | 56c | 1,066$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed No | 68c | 999.99$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 3c | 999.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 65c | 997.42$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.65 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d7…4952backed Yes | 49c | 980.29$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 14c | 951.2$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.57 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 42c | 932$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.56 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…3035backed No | 64c | 907.53$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7afb…61eabacked Yes | 23c | 899.99$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed No | 73c | 817.6$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.64 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 736.63$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.04 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 68c | 705$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.55 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 50c | 700$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 47c | 699.96$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.82 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f52…895cbacked Yes | 47c | 693.82$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 63c | 625$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.1 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed No | 70c | 610.89$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.77 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked No | 53c | 599.99$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed No | 49c | 579.36$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.25 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 572.3$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.11 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 68c | 536.96$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.72 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 74c | 533.72$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.17 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed Yes | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa189…a2d5backed No | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 28c | 499.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 497.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 476.75$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.05 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 67c | 474$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.42 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 67c | 455.35$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.65 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 23c | 452.4$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.21 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 76c | 451$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.95 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 408.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29fe…22cfbacked Yes | 47c | 400.41$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked Yes | 10c | 399.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5662…9aaabacked Yes | 29c | 399.33$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed No | 70c | 356.36$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.69 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 353.21$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc124…bd0fbacked Yes | 7c | 347.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Yes | 33c | 347$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed No | 78c | 334.86$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.33 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b9…5db9backed No | 77c | 332.79$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.54 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 12c | 331.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 72c | 321.58$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.96 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf7…0b92backed No | 50c | 294.36$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cd…3897backed No | 78c | 287.92$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d32…0457backed Yes | 45c | 280$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +526.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed Yes | 57c | 271.87$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d8…76a7backed No | 66c | 249.84$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…96cbbacked No | 60c | 247.72$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 42c | 223$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.95 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?this page
- Will Nigel Farage win 40–50% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?No won
- Will Nigel Farage win 50–60% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?No won
- Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Yes won
- Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?No won
- Will Nigel Farage win less than 40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.