Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02f8dd15d4c674a75fccbd0e00f0cf1256101c45ef41f6d0c5dfde9c36d4141e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,894,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,714,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,894,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,702 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e71…ba82backed No | 0c | 9,800,000$29,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,031.88 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd9…2835backed No | 0c | 482,188$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6adc…bebabacked No | 1c | 436,215$2,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,899.65 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa1…1fa9backed No | 0c | 401,875$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349.9 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558e…2ee7backed No | 0c | 287,784$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed No | 4c | 254,380$8,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,911.87 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeea…c03cbacked No | 2c | 186,842$2,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,897.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 80c | 166,724$132,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,153.68 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 77c | 144,969$112,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,866.1 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4568…d9f6backed No | 0c | 132,536$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.07 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked No | 30c | 119,143$35,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,226.11 | 105 | 28.6%30 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9620…bc27backed No | 0c | 115,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…e792backed No | 33c | 113,109$37,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,609.31 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked No | 0c | 112,713$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.17 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d56…4950backed No | 23c | 112,370$25,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,600 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.24per pick | 32cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d33…aa06backed No | 0c | 110,376$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…d06fbacked No | 0c | 107,486$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.74 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…ac27backed No | 0c | 101,629$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked No | 0c | 100,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked No | 1c | 100,000$1,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,187 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa096…27e6backed No | 0c | 100,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ef…f569backed No | 0c | 100,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe885…38efbacked No | 0c | 98,092$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.28 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…9953backed No | 60c | 96,537$57,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57,833.15 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa850…671cbacked No | 0c | 88,686$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…0e3cbacked No | 0c | 87,488$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 48c | 76,936$36,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,264.61 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 69c | 71,654$49,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,429.68 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9608…040bbacked No | 2c | 61,612$1,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,156.8 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…e03cbacked No | 70c | 60,000$41,858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,857.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 33c | 59,733$19,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,770.73 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…cbe3backed No | 0c | 58,701$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa10b…8ec6backed No | 9c | 58,659$5,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,570 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 23cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80c6…3e50backed No | 79c | 58,199$46,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,053.27 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +133.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eba…9993backed No | 8c | 57,211$4,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,420.86 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…cb27backed No | 0c | 57,146$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…8795backed No | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765d…f447backed No | 0c | 49,995$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa641…7ec8backed No | 0c | 47,439$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x523a…8e28backed No | 35c | 46,158$16,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,100.63 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 30c | 43,843$12,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,863.88 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45e2…6b30backed No | 0c | 43,504$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…eff6backed No | 0c | 43,325$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…e5fcbacked No | 0c | 42,345$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa78e…7cbcbacked No | 0c | 41,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…21cdbacked No | 61c | 41,265$25,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,000 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3da…8442backed No | 0c | 40,567$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…f629backed No | 0c | 40,180$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.44 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed No | 0c | 40,068$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 43 | 7%3 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0e…3700backed No | 0c | 38,934$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 40cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1151…c9abbacked No | 0c | 38,914$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.95 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…d517backed No | 0c | 37,975$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.07 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30e…ec1cbacked No | 0c | 37,333$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5602…1480backed Yes | 70c | 36,301$25,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,775.68 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…df9ebacked No | 0c | 34,822$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…3b6cbacked No | 2c | 34,384$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf15d…2f95backed No | 0c | 34,166$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…9d93backed No | 0c | 33,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +143.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…bd03backed No | 1c | 33,005$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.47 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +14.8wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1b3ebacked No | 20c | 32,781$6,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,438.92 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | +7.4wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c18…de25backed No | 0c | 31,944$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x692e…ee58backed No | 0c | 31,833$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a28…d58bbacked No | 0c | 31,212$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 18cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…a981backed No | 72c | 29,924$21,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,547.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 59c | 29,833$17,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,140.24 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9b…ad7ebacked No | 1c | 28,886$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.09 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -55%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 79c | 28,203$22,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,890.54 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x782e…e910backed No | 0c | 27,750$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes | 31c | 27,369$8,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,911.43 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 17c | 26,923$4,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,575.68 | 103 | 33%34 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 30c | 26,746$8,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,643.14 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked No | 0c | 26,096$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.34 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 67c | 26,079$17,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,573.21 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf3…1f72backed No | 2c | 25,390$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c56…6316backed No | 0c | 25,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…0ddcbacked No | 0c | 24,654$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.46 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.42per pick | 24cpaid | +173.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa20a…d92dbacked No | 38c | 24,623$9,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,395.18 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…424cbacked No | 9c | 24,003$2,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,165.89 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4619…dfefbacked No | 0c | 23,583$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.71 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fad…f5c0backed Yes | 47c | 23,231$10,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,261.45 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +9.1wins | +0.25per pick | 36cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd0…d6aabacked No | 50c | 23,198$11,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,643.53 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f23…90dbbacked No | 0c | 22,992$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac20…a68abacked No | 6c | 22,241$1,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,385.23 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ed…e774backed No | 76c | 20,662$15,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,668.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb48…5c1fbacked No | 0c | 20,333$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…d4ecbacked No | 0c | 20,333$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 53c | 19,900$10,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,391.9 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a67…00abbacked No | 0c | 19,750$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb273…aa63backed Yes | 30c | 18,433$5,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,882.85 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb85…af51backed No | 0c | 17,980$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +365.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc174…b757backed No | 6c | 17,976$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eec…9a8cbacked No | 41c | 17,382$7,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,086 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9be…8754backed No | 2c | 16,968$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 47c | 16,928$7,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,936.44 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa39e…1d88backed No | 46c | 16,743$7,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,725.8 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…c978backed No | 0c | 16,667$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 6cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeafa…fbc1backed No | 0c | 16,667$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90d…fd4cbacked No | 0c | 16,667$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb6…136cbacked No | 0c | 16,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?this page
- Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026??No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.