Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026??
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x397b09f00bafba0d28ae03adc9fdb0dbe14f8519e014db2e2870e64d8ecede6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,064
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 13c | 6,069$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.7 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,586$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 2,526$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d2…88aebacked Yes | 4c | 2,112$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 12c | 1,966$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.27 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,733$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.58 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35e…0e64backed Yes | 7c | 1,399$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.40per pick | 51cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 12c | 970.53$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.46 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…60c2backed Yes | 9c | 684.04$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…17b0backed Yes | 9c | 620$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa222…7d3cbacked Yes | 18c | 600$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66e2…f317backed Yes | 15c | 533.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 9c | 420.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 6c | 417.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…9387backed Yes | 14c | 399.95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 4c | 392.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 62 | 9.7%6 W · 56 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…9c58backed Yes | 8c | 344.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 5c | 328.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 98 | 27.6%27 W · 71 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3958…82e3backed Yes | 17c | 295.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 15c | 193.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 9c | 184.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x872a…3f46backed Yes | 12c | 180$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…d3d6backed Yes | 19c | 155.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 16c | 140.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299d…e85fbacked Yes | 13c | 126.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0836…3ac9backed Yes | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…2befbacked Yes | 12c | 86.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a38…b9afbacked Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked No | 51c | 30.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…e125backed No | 73c | 23.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026??this page
- Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.