Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d675f1c88099a57c12abca632cf926be1bf430125168321de06234e9930fe1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,015,344
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,286,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,015,344 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 292 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes | 0c | 4,349,838$8,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,399.83 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12dd…d701backed Yes | 0c | 2,727,750$2,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,752 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed Yes | 0c | 2,067,118$2,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,965.48 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb8…253ebacked Yes | 0c | 2,000,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdef…fa87backed Yes | 1c | 1,164,907$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…9491backed Yes | 0c | 500,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6452…30a1backed Yes | 0c | 444,760$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe821…b27ebacked Yes | 1c | 399,003$2,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,780.48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd600…b66ebacked Yes | 1c | 383,005$3,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,190.34 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2d…2adcbacked Yes | 1c | 337,394$2,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,665.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…6c37backed Yes | 0c | 312,749$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90d4…c7c8backed Yes | 0c | 277,795$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.59 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0b…4576backed Yes | 0c | 180,545$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf5…7f12backed Yes | 0c | 173,549$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.79 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a0…60c3backed Yes | 0c | 166,666$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe788…736bbacked Yes | 0c | 160,284$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.99 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f3…2822backed Yes | 0c | 150,214$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.89 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…486abacked Yes | 0c | 150,000$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…56a3backed Yes | 0c | 148,515$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.03 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 0c | 126,000$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 0c | 119,506$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.64 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…637bbacked Yes | 0c | 107,790$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x029d…1d43backed Yes | 0c | 106,535$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 103,262$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.82 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -95.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb54c…500abacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25e2…4ffcbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfd…0029backed Yes | 1c | 100,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438b…08f0backed Yes | 0c | 92,975$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fe…324abacked Yes | 0c | 80,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…fd61backed Yes | 1c | 77,219$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.26 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 0c | 75,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +276.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbece…a74dbacked Yes | 0c | 75,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…84eabacked Yes | 0c | 74,930$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 0c | 73,904$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.61 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0b…204dbacked Yes | 0c | 69,856$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdb…4496backed Yes | 2c | 66,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…3581backed Yes | 1c | 58,636$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1858…81e2backed Yes | 0c | 52,000$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x469c…309bbacked Yes | 2c | 51,709$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.89 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…fb78backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5801…bc3dbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0886…b3a6backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c65…8b3ebacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…fb09backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf97f…1ea6backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a15…97cbbacked Yes | 1c | 49,750$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…c08abacked Yes | 0c | 48,110$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee9d…29a1backed Yes | 1c | 47,688$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…d143backed Yes | 0c | 47,390$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9926…5d2cbacked Yes | 0c | 45,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…25a8backed Yes | 1c | 40,741$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.67 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca6…7179backed Yes | 3c | 40,172$1,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4e…efc1backed Yes | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc075…52f4backed Yes | 0c | 40,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc828…dbfabacked Yes | 0c | 39,860$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.87 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe96d…a747backed Yes | 0c | 38,643$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe487…a676backed Yes | 0c | 37,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b20…e68bbacked Yes | 0c | 36,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 0c | 35,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x674d…af3ebacked Yes | 0c | 33,399$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x825b…42cdbacked Yes | 0c | 31,181$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 0c | 31,096$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.08 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…6104backed Yes | 1c | 30,527$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.81 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff4e…5502backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1932…e6d3backed Yes | 1c | 28,763$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6a…e86dbacked Yes | 1c | 28,016$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.89 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…c90bbacked Yes | 0c | 27,857$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c22…0960backed Yes | 1c | 26,096$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.97 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1958…310bbacked Yes | 1c | 25,970$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.11 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1229…df38backed Yes | 1c | 25,394$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.76 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked Yes | 1c | 25,000$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d6…5e06backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…0659backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x529f…ffd4backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f02…a51cbacked Yes | 0c | 24,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -94.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x734c…1d86backed Yes | 0c | 23,500$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1e…6515backed Yes | 0c | 23,345$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8d…a7e9backed Yes | 0c | 23,320$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0f…38e7backed Yes | 0c | 23,232$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4110…01f7backed Yes | 0c | 22,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb19c…2467backed Yes | 0c | 21,882$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 0c | 20,448$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x140f…6497backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0d…8ca1backed Yes | 1c | 20,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5845…afb0backed Yes | 1c | 20,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3c…0283backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ebe…892dbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92ec…2a53backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d0…058ebacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…7a56backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 1c | 19,980$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.28 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 0c | 18,889$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…f77abacked Yes | 0c | 18,608$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed Yes | 0c | 18,050$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…a549backed Yes | 2c | 16,566$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40c5…5cbabacked Yes | 1c | 16,000$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.33 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d6…e727backed Yes | 0c | 15,430$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7e…cb13backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?this page
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?No won
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?No won
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?No won
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.