Earnings · resolved market
Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2d7b9a2831e882deedc53d7f94c7ee115edb62fddfcff2415c217f36e3d80b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $457,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $477,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $457,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc8c…273fbacked Yes | 0c | 190,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…1377backed Yes | 0c | 21,429$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 7c | 16,157$1,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 59c | 10,020$5,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,904.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3a…c81cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5a…b691backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 76c | 9,857$7,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,343.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 55c | 7,046$3,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,191.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 20c | 5,505$1,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,119 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda73…4d41backed Yes | 18c | 3,941$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed Yes | 71c | 3,742$2,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,666.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 13c | 3,583$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5039…946dbacked Yes | 50c | 3,238$1,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,630.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe234…304abacked Yes | 5c | 3,000$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…89bfbacked Yes | 14c | 2,957$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 20c | 2,902$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.33 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 13c | 2,681$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 8c | 2,417$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.54 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 7c | 2,303$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.63 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 6c | 2,072$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.56 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +38%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf97…4653backed Yes | 10c | 1,961$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.55 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 20c | 1,748$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x845e…d22bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,693$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,484$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.52 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed Yes | 18c | 1,323$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…a6d3backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 16c | 995.82$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.93 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…e3e2backed Yes | 11c | 978$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.38per pick | 28cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 964.99$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.08 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 11c | 844.46$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.26 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4272…10c2backed Yes | 31c | 784.03$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…6430backed No | 78c | 749.98$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 13c | 746.58$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed Yes | 19c | 732.64$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 11c | 711.92$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.21 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +10.1wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 37c | 701.72$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 16c | 695$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.55 | 142 | 33.8%48 W · 94 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaad…69ccbacked Yes | 11c | 691.15$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed Yes | 10c | 677.6$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.73 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 33c | 630$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0952…a44bbacked Yes | 60c | 600$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 17c | 582$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bd…f03ebacked No | 78c | 522.08$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 16c | 521.2$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 11c | 520$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde88…144cbacked Yes | 13c | 517.52$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…0e21backed Yes | 10c | 501.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked Yes | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa16f…5f84backed Yes | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1682…26cabacked Yes | 5c | 499.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 64c | 468.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6725…1bf9backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…1368backed Yes | 14c | 452.35$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…962fbacked Yes | 27c | 450.72$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed Yes | 10c | 450$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db3…1d38backed Yes | 22c | 448.4$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 10c | 434.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 43c | 431.77$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.31 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed Yes | 13c | 419.1$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92a7…eb78backed Yes | 8c | 414.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…f878backed Yes | 11c | 400$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…5ab8backed Yes | 13c | 376.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 14c | 361.55$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 60c | 315.3$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.43 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 12c | 305.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe60…c2f7backed Yes | 31c | 291.68$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 10c | 285.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb418…8f46backed Yes | 60c | 276.62$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee12…a5f4backed Yes | 19c | 268.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 10c | 257.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes | 20c | 252.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Yes | 5c | 250$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed Yes | 5c | 250$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd25…5c83backed No | 75c | 230.21$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd542…f187backed No | 43c | 227.86$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +130.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 6c | 210.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e14…86f0backed Yes | 14c | 200.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…2223backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed No | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacc…78c8backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b6…3a92backed Yes | 25c | 195.54$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c58…1fc0backed Yes | 14c | 179.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…827cbacked Yes | 13c | 160$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 9c | 152.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 63c | 144.35$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede3…e3f2backed Yes | 10c | 140$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa87f…864dbacked Yes | 25c | 131.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 58cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23c4…9c42backed Yes | 13c | 129.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8c…c39abacked Yes | 9c | 119.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…1ddabacked Yes | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…d85ebacked Yes | 30c | 102.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…1893backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…3188backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…b7b5backed Yes | 42c | 94.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa8…4359backed No | 42c | 83.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +139.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ad…90f6backed Yes | 41c | 79.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…4ce2backed No | 64c | 77.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…6bfdbacked Yes | 59c | 71.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…e629backed Yes | 15c | 69.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?this page
- Will Dow say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during earnings call?No won
- Will Dow say "Capacity" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Dow say "China" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Dow say "Demand" 10+ times during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Dow say "Fiscal" 10+ times during earnings call?No won
- Will Dow say "Income" 10+ times during earnings call?No won
- Will Dow say "Iran" during earnings call?No won
- Will Dow say "Margin" 5+ times during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Dow say "Profit" 10+ times during earnings call?No won
- Will Dow say "Revenue" 10+ times during earnings call?No won
- Will Dow say "Win" during earnings call?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.