Movies · resolved market
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb6830a620e3a3bfdf0677d98b0628f041e52e2caff76d76d3567578364d356f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $768,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $615,957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $768,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 426 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe4b3…c131backed Yes | 1c | 57,411$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f55…4213backed Yes | 1c | 39,263$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 37c | 36,952$13,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,715.42 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 77c | 30,624$23,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,057.74 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 26,850$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked No | 75c | 22,724$17,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,677.89 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 63c | 22,632$14,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,318.52 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x43b7…6f28backed Yes | 1c | 18,729$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 26c | 17,176$4,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,675.27 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 0c | 13,901$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 23c | 13,095$3,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,033.74 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4634…d158backed Yes | 3c | 12,735$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.57 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…1dc2backed Yes | 76c | 12,010$9,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,097.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 32c | 10,897$3,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,539.25 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Yes | 14c | 10,025$1,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,382.96 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 20c | 9,994$1,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,974.15 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 15c | 9,100$1,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,375.62 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 10c | 8,715$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.67 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x440a…0ae9backed Yes | 1c | 8,342$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed Yes | 21c | 7,564$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590.48 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 14c | 6,760$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.9 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ea…4d20backed Yes | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed No | 56c | 6,151$3,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,732.57 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 4c | 5,315$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3027…d7f4backed Yes | 0c | 5,020$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5c…a8b5backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…9b10backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…deb0backed No | 70c | 5,000$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 9c | 4,533$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.91 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…ea17backed Yes | 14c | 4,011$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.17 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 30c | 3,611$1,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.99 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 43c | 3,533$1,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,026.06 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…b395backed No | 68c | 3,447$2,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100.19 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 3,250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 1c | 3,209$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed Yes | 32c | 3,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 3c | 2,984$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.44 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 58c | 2,679$1,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.63 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x731c…637dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,325$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…317fbacked Yes | 12c | 2,305$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278 | 75 | 8%6 W · 69 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked No | 77c | 2,225$1,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.23 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 9c | 2,186$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.07 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,143$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed Yes | 12c | 2,109$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.53 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked No | 39c | 2,057$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,251.83 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 59c | 2,000$1,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173.61 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de3…765fbacked No | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 21c | 1,801$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.93 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,738$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ae…e370backed No | 60c | 1,700$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Yes | 9c | 1,650$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.17 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x776f…e259backed Yes | 13c | 1,646$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 4c | 1,644$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.11 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a52…3e04backed Yes | 32c | 1,514$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.32 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 46c | 1,510$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.5 | 329 | 24%79 W · 250 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 14c | 1,494$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.84 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,460$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 1,442$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.17 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0d…e7a5backed No | 71c | 1,416$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 23c | 1,402$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.57 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 58c | 1,400$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.99 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 1c | 1,387$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 1,300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…9b33backed Yes | 44c | 1,300$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.99 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…6622backed Yes | 22c | 1,287$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.14 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…5e43backed Yes | 2c | 1,260$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,218$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.46 | 39 | 0%0 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc521…b46abacked Yes | 26c | 1,207$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 266 | 6.4%17 W · 249 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e2…bb87backed Yes | 26c | 1,200$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.85 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…6069backed Yes | 21c | 1,164$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,158$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -52%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 12c | 1,140$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2f…7e70backed Yes | 41c | 1,068$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 53c | 1,063$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.22 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f3…bb19backed Yes | 2c | 1,027$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 75c | 1,014$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.51 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 21c | 999.9$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.39 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…e487backed Yes | 22c | 999.65$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 45c | 989.56$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.99 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 2c | 984.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a10…e7d3backed No | 78c | 955$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.1 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 2c | 938.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed Yes | 17c | 932$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed No | 41c | 926.41$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.55 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked Yes | 27c | 899.94$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.82 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2d…5bd2backed Yes | 3c | 891.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed Yes | 17c | 856.3$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.56 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…956bbacked Yes | 2c | 840.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 72c | 838.55$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.81 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85a8…f8dcbacked Yes | 11c | 813.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa28c…9ee5backed No | 46c | 800$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed Yes | 15c | 795.42$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.38 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82bb…85a8backed Yes | 50c | 787.54$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked No | 72c | 787.1$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.6 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ce…57c4backed Yes | 21c | 731.98$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.31 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd194…24b8backed Yes | 10c | 730.01$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.06 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 20c | 723.86$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.16 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 40c | 700$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m?this page
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 160m and 170m?No won
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 170m and 180m?No won
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?No won
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m?Yes won
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 160m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.