Movies · resolved market
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc35f382694bc66e67f6e0f0a8b28c992756960fd8ef2cfc6568d04df528d6ef1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $338,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $358,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $338,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 262 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 64c | 54,003$34,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,500.96 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 45c | 35,955$16,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,906.12 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 50c | 12,568$6,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,238.72 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 38c | 9,518$3,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,874.26 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 35c | 6,902$2,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,461.21 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 38c | 6,697$2,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,178.25 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 43c | 6,183$2,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,507.46 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 35c | 6,064$2,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,955.81 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 54c | 5,991$3,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,778.65 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…6edfbacked No | 21c | 4,784$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 47c | 3,976$1,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,102.39 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…9b10backed Yes | 46c | 3,856$1,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,100.63 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…c958backed No | 8c | 3,698$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.72 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 55c | 3,697$2,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,659.27 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9e86…fce6backed Yes | 51c | 3,663$1,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,801.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 39c | 3,157$1,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,937.56 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…ea17backed Yes | 24c | 3,059$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,328.58 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 24c | 2,500$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,905.01 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…317fbacked Yes | 41c | 2,428$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440.77 | 75 | 8%6 W · 69 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 19c | 2,310$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,879.13 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 2,142$1,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.73 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…2baabacked Yes | 49c | 1,949$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 52c | 1,820$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -52%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x128c…ad12backed Yes | 38c | 1,815$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125.54 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb401…df2abacked Yes | 54c | 1,669$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.71 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 25c | 1,633$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,221.19 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Yes | 31c | 1,627$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126.51 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed Yes | 48c | 1,516$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.16 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 38c | 1,511$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.71 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 20c | 1,500$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,196.42 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 40c | 1,500$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 52c | 1,499$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.17 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…35cebacked Yes | 23c | 1,498$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,153.55 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 26c | 1,400$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.17 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 62c | 1,387$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.83 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb9…6f7abacked No | 33c | 1,312$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.71 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 39c | 1,220$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.75 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed Yes | 50c | 1,193$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.44 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 14c | 1,077$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.47 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 64c | 1,070$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.22 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 28c | 1,007$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.25 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed No | 68c | 1,000$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…e964backed Yes | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed Yes | 45c | 999.97$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.86 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b7…6f28backed Yes | 40c | 992.33$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 52c | 984.43$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.39 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b49…178dbacked No | 5c | 953.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked Yes | 17c | 894.1$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.26 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4634…d158backed Yes | 51c | 873.35$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…cce9backed Yes | 16c | 862.14$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…7d57backed Yes | 23c | 854.33$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.93 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 17c | 848.63$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.36 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 57c | 848.07$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.93 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 10c | 836.51$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.97 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 35c | 828.59$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.63 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed Yes | 20c | 810.72$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.09 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e2…bb87backed Yes | 31c | 800$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.47 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f55…4213backed Yes | 57c | 761.43$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…e487backed Yes | 20c | 759.86$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.86 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 46c | 758.57$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.65 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked Yes | 51c | 750$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.54 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 74c | 733.65$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.85 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 696.66$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.32 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b3…c131backed Yes | 49c | 663.92$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25b4…635abacked Yes | 59c | 625.59$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 47c | 612.04$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.35 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed Yes | 50c | 607.26$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.2 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 50c | 604.89$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.6 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba0…97bfbacked Yes | 79c | 600$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91fc…0109backed Yes | 33c | 600$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d79…268fbacked Yes | 18c | 570.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.84 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 31c | 570.35$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.03 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 66c | 544.83$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.96 | 130 | 34.6%45 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9a…58d5backed Yes | 70c | 514.5$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfe…1afcbacked Yes | 29c | 509.6$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.12 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 67c | 500$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed Yes | 40c | 432.18$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.4 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 400.09$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.9 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…3e7abacked Yes | 53c | 386.6$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.54 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 26c | 372.24$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.57 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90f…b6dabacked Yes | 31c | 369.53$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +176.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…5593backed Yes | 62c | 369.31$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…71aebacked Yes | 69c | 363.9$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.9 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…b395backed Yes | 39c | 354.79$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fd…59a9backed Yes | 36c | 350$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeca…e32abacked Yes | 40c | 350$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb526…613abacked Yes | 13c | 344.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +160.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 55c | 341.21$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.08 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5864…76b9backed Yes | 15c | 339.54$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 8c | 338.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.79 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1e…cf5fbacked Yes | 46c | 329.54$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8200…df37backed Yes | 34c | 326.64$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 40c | 320.79$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.9 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4c…dd95backed Yes | 65c | 320.1$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.61 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba3…6c19backed Yes | 22c | 318.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 18c | 304.39$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.7 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 33c | 300$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 37c | 300$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.9 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…664abacked Yes | 51c | 300$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked Yes | 36c | 299.99$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.99 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m?this page
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 160m and 170m?No won
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 170m and 180m?No won
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?No won
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m?No won
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 160m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.