TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$338,657
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$358,009

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $338,657 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 262 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecaa…77a9backed No64c54,003$34,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,500.9617751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4da7…355ebacked Yes45c35,955$16,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,906.127538.7%29 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes50c12,568$6,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,238.7218746%86 W · 101 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked Yes38c9,518$3,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,874.2629642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes35c6,902$2,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,461.2132639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe78…c533backed Yes38c6,697$2,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,178.2529735.7%106 W · 191 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6018…170cbacked Yes43c6,183$2,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,507.4613635.3%48 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb028…8686backed Yes35c6,064$2,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,955.8123639.8%94 W · 142 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes54c5,991$3,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,778.6529423.5%69 W · 225 L+0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7994…6edfbacked No21c4,784$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1920…a04ebacked Yes47c3,976$1,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,102.3912631%39 W · 87 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-40.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfed7…9b10backed Yes46c3,856$1,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,100.633330.3%10 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1568…c958backed No8c3,698$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.72128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick24cpaid-87.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes55c3,697$2,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,659.2715059.3%89 W · 61 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+24.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x9e86…fce6backed Yes51c3,663$1,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,801.22250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Yes39c3,157$1,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,937.5619532.8%64 W · 131 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8085…ea17backed Yes24c3,059$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,328.584938.8%19 W · 30 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick31cpaid-8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes24c2,500$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,905.0126431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83d7…317fbacked Yes41c2,428$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,440.77758%6 W · 69 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-86.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes19c2,310$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,879.1328524.2%69 W · 216 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes53c2,142$1,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,014.7313735%48 W · 89 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-35.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x76b3…2baabacked Yes49c1,949$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984.86650%3 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+48.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes52c1,820$948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$872.79425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-52%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x128c…ad12backed Yes38c1,815$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,125.541637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb401…df2abacked Yes54c1,669$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.711631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-47.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcffe…146dbacked Yes25c1,633$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,221.1912936.4%47 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e39…352cbacked Yes31c1,627$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,126.514151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x478e…a576backed Yes48c1,516$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.162441.7%10 W · 14 L-3.6wins-0.15per pick57cpaid-34.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes38c1,511$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$930.7115149%74 W · 77 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+1.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes20c1,500$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,196.427839.7%31 W · 47 L+8.4wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+11.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes40c1,500$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90032739.1%128 W · 199 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc67f…dac8backed Yes52c1,499$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.172330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4155…35cebacked Yes23c1,498$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,153.552441.7%10 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes26c1,400$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.1747328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes62c1,387$856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.8367232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeeb9…6f7abacked No33c1,312$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.711643.8%7 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes39c1,220$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.7523321.5%50 W · 183 L+1.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d81…fe57backed Yes50c1,193$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.446150.8%31 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes14c1,077$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.4715054.7%82 W · 68 L+30.5wins+0.20per pick34cpaid+62.6%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes64c1,070$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.2217540%70 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6680…c738backed Yes28c1,007$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.2510544.8%47 W · 58 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed No68c1,000$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6791435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3bcf…e964backed Yes56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4401100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dc3…7865backed Yes45c999.97$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.867022.9%16 W · 54 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-33.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43b7…6f28backed Yes40c992.33$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.78425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-37.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes52c984.43$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.3913534.8%47 W · 88 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b49…178dbacked No5c953.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdff8…3c8bbacked Yes17c894.1$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.267241.7%30 W · 42 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+24.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4634…d158backed Yes51c873.35$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.78728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick18cpaid-39.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfee8…cce9backed Yes16c862.14$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.14825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39a8…7d57backed Yes23c854.33$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.931926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid-39.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes17c848.63$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$706.3623130.3%70 W · 161 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes57c848.07$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.933461.8%21 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked No10c836.51$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.972128.6%6 W · 15 L+3.1wins+0.15per pick14cpaid+79.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed Yes35c828.59$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.6313820.3%28 W · 110 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid+27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7bb…a9f7backed Yes20c810.72$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.098247.6%39 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e2…bb87backed Yes31c800$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.473141.9%13 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f55…4213backed Yes57c761.43$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.83366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+39.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x056f…e487backed Yes20c759.86$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.8612030%36 W · 84 L+0.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes46c758.57$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.659434%32 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29d3…b2edbacked Yes51c750$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.541233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No74c733.65$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.8528528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No60c696.66$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.328351.8%43 W · 40 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4b3…c131backed Yes49c663.92$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.99520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-59.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25b4…635abacked Yes59c625.59$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.5825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-58.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes47c612.04$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.3532814.9%49 W · 279 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-59.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed Yes50c607.26$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.22360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No50c604.89$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.63910.3%4 W · 35 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcba0…97bfbacked Yes79c600$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.2650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91fc…0109backed Yes33c600$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.21442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d79…268fbacked Yes18c570.84$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.841315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-41.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes31c570.35$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.0314530.3%44 W · 101 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No66c544.83$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.9613034.6%45 W · 85 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb9a…58d5backed Yes70c514.5$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.06366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cfe…1afcbacked Yes29c509.6$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.121258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+29.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked No67c500$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3335518.2%10 W · 45 L-7.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-60.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x50a3…0a78backed Yes40c432.18$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.41662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+20.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes23c400.09$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.919133%63 W · 128 L+0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d7c…3e7abacked Yes53c386.6$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.542944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-26.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes26c372.24$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.573122.6%7 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick13cpaid+5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd90f…b6dabacked Yes31c369.53$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.842100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+176.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x26a4…5593backed Yes62c369.31$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.612100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa834…71aebacked Yes69c363.9$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.92147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…b395backed Yes39c354.79$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2161741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-35.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe8fd…59a9backed Yes36c350$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+38.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbeca…e32abacked Yes40c350$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2101241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb526…613abacked Yes13c344.55$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.45333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick18cpaid+160.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No55c341.21$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.0813333.1%44 W · 89 L-10.3wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-41.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5864…76b9backed Yes15c339.54$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.74333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick14cpaid+122.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4041…6f52backed Yes8c338.59$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.7917017.1%29 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f1e…cf5fbacked Yes46c329.54$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.192100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+90.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8200…df37backed Yes34c326.64$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.64560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+26.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No40c320.79$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.916015.6%25 W · 135 L-26.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-70.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x3c4c…dd95backed Yes65c320.1$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.61862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ba3…6c19backed Yes22c318.98$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.98333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+54.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes18c304.39$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.711825.4%30 W · 88 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed Yes33c300$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.8333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed Yes37c300$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.91936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x89d1…664abacked Yes51c300$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52bd…1a8abacked Yes36c299.99$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.995837.9%22 W · 36 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.