Movies · resolved market
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 170m and 180m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9328d62ee627adbe73b69f306ec33632f1818ba038a20e33cfd331ddcecc4c48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $217,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $217,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 57,531$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.85 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 12c | 10,469$1,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,261.34 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 18c | 10,183$1,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,855.15 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…71aebacked Yes | 0c | 9,002$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 0c | 4,213$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 64 | 4.7%3 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 7c | 3,870$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.64 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 4c | 3,260$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.34 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 2,316$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.17 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 14c | 2,255$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.44 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,143$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 5c | 1,835$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.81 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…7d57backed Yes | 18c | 1,749$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.97 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,650$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.49 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 3c | 1,504$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 16c | 1,479$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.77 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed Yes | 16c | 1,433$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.24 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 13c | 1,147$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.35 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,080$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -52%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 1c | 984.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 17c | 958$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.99 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed Yes | 17c | 940$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.98 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9322…01e3backed Yes | 18c | 930$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.68 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0016…1b7abacked Yes | 17c | 929$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…bd49backed Yes | 17c | 920$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…7572backed Yes | 18c | 913$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.69 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 16c | 868.89$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.07 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe477…b1b8backed Yes | 5c | 813.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 28cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 7c | 786.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…24efbacked Yes | 17c | 767$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.62 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 18c | 699.79$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.41 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0b…4d31backed Yes | 21c | 699.54$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.59 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…c67bbacked Yes | 3c | 694.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4634…d158backed Yes | 5c | 642.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed No | 79c | 633$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.09 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…f215backed Yes | 18c | 601$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.78 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 600$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…271abacked Yes | 18c | 564$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.26 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9bde…c82fbacked Yes | 9c | 546.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -75%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 531.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 526.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 513$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 5c | 510.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x681b…8a5abacked Yes | 4c | 459.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1084…d520backed Yes | 12c | 430.42$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 31c | 421.48$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.67 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 6c | 415.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 337.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e81…e4eabacked Yes | 6c | 313.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…b395backed Yes | 9c | 312.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 13c | 304.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 13c | 300$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 8c | 288.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 26c | 287.91$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.55 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 9c | 283.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 6c | 249.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…8403backed Yes | 6c | 244.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9f…7f50backed Yes | 8c | 239.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 218.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0369…2a12backed Yes | 6c | 201.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f035backed Yes | 6c | 192.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…3fa9backed Yes | 24c | 188.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 15c | 178.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked Yes | 7c | 166$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 24cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked Yes | 17c | 162$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 8c | 159.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked Yes | 17c | 152$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc6…02ddbacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…b75bbacked Yes | 17c | 149.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 22c | 147.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29f6…d6b6backed Yes | 10c | 146.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 10c | 142.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…d581backed Yes | 38c | 132.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 19c | 118.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…332ebacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb401…df2abacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 97.46$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4813…6f22backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2197…ac4bbacked Yes | 22c | 86.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed Yes | 15c | 77.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 16c | 77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 20c | 69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 80c | 69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7738…76a4backed Yes | 16c | 67.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cb…3bbebacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded6…81ebbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef3…2ea2backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff5a…ab91backed No | 61c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 80c | 15.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb687…2325backed No | 72c | 14.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 170m and 180m?this page
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 160m and 170m?No won
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?No won
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m?Yes won
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m?No won
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 160m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.