Movies · resolved market
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 160m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca04e1e3c9a6881bf9ff7d44698491fe73d43abd0db17bdf3296669c7136ca28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $291,472
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $188,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $291,472 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Yes | 0c | 50,466$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…a754backed Yes | 0c | 38,064$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 32,534$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.02 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Yes | 0c | 9,639$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 0c | 8,377$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 2c | 7,474$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.95 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…7d57backed Yes | 0c | 6,667$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 1c | 6,233$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.02 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0928…9d34backed Yes | 0c | 3,811$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 3,427$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a6…0a76backed Yes | 7c | 3,001$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef9…0928backed Yes | 1c | 2,984$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,820$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4813…6f22backed Yes | 0c | 2,530$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141d…61abbacked Yes | 2c | 2,378$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…6feebacked Yes | 7c | 1,722$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.56 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…5499backed Yes | 6c | 1,562$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,512$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 2c | 1,499$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 1c | 1,485$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,243$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.26 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,173$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.03 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,093$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 39 | 0%0 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 1,085$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.41 | 89 | 4.5%4 W · 85 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5502…d440backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb1…bce7backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…ffd6backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1084…d520backed Yes | 7c | 999.96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 3c | 943.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 774.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb70…f963backed Yes | 7c | 696.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc6…02ddbacked Yes | 8c | 659.21$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 6c | 625.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 4c | 599.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1e…f060backed Yes | 2c | 596.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Yes | 5c | 588.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9e…6693backed Yes | 6c | 501.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dca…3c13backed Yes | 7c | 499.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 7c | 499.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 359.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 6c | 304.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35aa…ba97backed Yes | 7c | 224.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 7c | 223$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f035backed Yes | 6c | 209.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0a…1936backed Yes | 6c | 200.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7796…f67cbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf880…d779backed Yes | 6c | 156.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…b75bbacked Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 9c | 136.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Yes | 8c | 124.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 160m?this page
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 160m and 170m?No won
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 170m and 180m?No won
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?No won
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m?Yes won
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.