TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$353,579
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$301,663

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $353,579 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 279 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes5c26,375$1,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,391.7632814.9%49 W · 279 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-59.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4da7…355ebacked Yes17c25,277$4,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,423.077538.7%29 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes30c15,994$4,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,862.2517751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes40c10,032$4,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,024.1218746%86 W · 101 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1568…c958backed Yes17c6,769$1,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,154.81128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick24cpaid-87.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x54a2…f723backed No52c6,000$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,850.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+90.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb16d…7d91backed No59c5,000$2,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0451100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes37c4,968$1,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,852.1232639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdda8…0bffbacked No72c4,900$3,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,386.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1920…a04ebacked Yes9c4,813$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.6212631%39 W · 87 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-40.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes34c4,435$1,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,516.698332.5%27 W · 56 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-38.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e86…fce6backed Yes46c4,391$2,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,001250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes25c4,304$1,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.963910.3%4 W · 35 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes15c4,077$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.7923321.5%50 W · 183 L+1.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcffe…146dbacked Yes26c3,250$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.5912936.4%47 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked Yes47c2,950$1,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,385.2529642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6018…170cbacked Yes49c2,714$1,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,343.2613635.3%48 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes28c2,700$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.5516350.3%82 W · 81 L+24.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+23.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes11c2,596$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.7715054.7%82 W · 68 L+30.5wins+0.20per pick34cpaid+62.6%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Yes42c2,558$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,064.719532.8%64 W · 131 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe78…c533backed Yes12c2,533$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.729735.7%106 W · 191 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfed7…9b10backed Yes45c2,500$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1253330.3%10 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes20c2,378$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.1628524.2%69 W · 216 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39a8…7d57backed Yes19c2,221$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.881926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid-39.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes41c2,154$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883.8813735%48 W · 89 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-35.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f11…ddc4backed No51c2,123$1,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,041.7515059.3%89 W · 61 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+24.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xff12…cdc4backed Yes0c2,117$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.03560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid-15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x056f…e487backed Yes6c2,087$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13012030%36 W · 84 L+0.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2702…7b89backed Yes50c1,998$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.8837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-37.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeeb9…6f7abacked No70c1,818$1,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.531643.8%7 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes27c1,666$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.9917540%70 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x478e…a576backed Yes43c1,634$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.92441.7%10 W · 14 L-3.6wins-0.15per pick57cpaid-34.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes20c1,600$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.0347328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4634…d158backed Yes4c1,551$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.03728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick18cpaid-39.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes39c1,544$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.79425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-52%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8085…ea17backed Yes42c1,512$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.574938.8%19 W · 30 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick31cpaid-8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc67f…dac8backed Yes27c1,504$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.632330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaebd…c462backed Yes8c1,354$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.86933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+27.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x128c…ad12backed Yes53c1,285$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.851637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed8a…9032backed Yes5c1,276$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes58c1,272$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.561435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f55…4213backed No41c1,190$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.06366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+39.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d81…fe57backed Yes40c1,137$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.966150.8%31 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e39…352cbacked Yes44c1,125$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes18c1,075$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.6823130.3%70 W · 161 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0a8…0c57backed Yes14c1,025$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.631040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+48%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes43c984.43$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.0813534.8%47 W · 88 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No60c954.11$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.0713034.6%45 W · 85 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb51…f32cbacked Yes20c952.6$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.664425%11 W · 33 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-29.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x85f5…ada8backed Yes2c930.63$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14254%1 W · 24 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick11cpaid-93.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes11c866.68$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.412516%4 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83d7…317fbacked Yes21c844.94$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.37758%6 W · 69 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-86.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x91fc…0109backed Yes55c840.1$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.761442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes26c837.58$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21467232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dc3…7865backed Yes30c804.56$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.067022.9%16 W · 54 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-33.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb9a…58d5backed Yes41c774.07$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.68366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes42c709.41$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.2815149%74 W · 77 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+1.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No59c688.71$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.448351.8%43 W · 40 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes54c671.6$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.9610549.5%52 W · 53 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-4.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a51…8d14backed Yes60c667.78$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x59e4…c67bbacked Yes3c659.98$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.656330.2%19 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0b…4d31backed Yes34c619.83$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.131020%2 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-70.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89d1…664abacked No56c606.44$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.892100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x153c…3759backed Yes60c584.3$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35030%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x931f…2e44backed No40c566.94$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.94333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26a4…5593backed No63c513.11$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.472100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe539…08c8backed Yes60c500.83$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes60c500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005518.2%10 W · 45 L-7.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-60.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf7bb…a9f7backed Yes40c500$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.58247.6%39 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf933…52fbbacked Yes28c499.99$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.512240.2%49 W · 73 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x897a…b17ebacked Yes61c499.99$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.993339.4%13 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe827…5209backed Yes36c477$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.08560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb028…8686backed No59c450$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.523639.8%94 W · 142 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes14c438.58$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6319133%63 W · 128 L+0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5864…76b9backed Yes14c436.06$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.43333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick14cpaid+122.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4041…6f52backed Yes4c435.5$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4717017.1%29 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed No68c400.41$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.422360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3e2…bb87backed Yes16c400$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.573141.9%13 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes62c399.99$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.84940.8%20 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x743d…f77ebacked No67c382$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+91.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfee8…cce9backed Yes16c378.31$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No79c374.54$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.3322030.5%67 W · 153 L-13.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x731c…637dbacked No56c368.31$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.31922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-65.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes4c361.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.214530.3%44 W · 101 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes5c353.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.142686.3%17 W · 251 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-53%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d73…d924backed Yes28c346$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07c5…a7e0backed Yes28c346$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bca…b60abacked Yes48c342.29$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.8111421.9%25 W · 89 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x747a…5581backed No52c342$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab5f…aab9backed Yes33c338.25$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.39850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9907…ca66backed Yes56c333.28$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.2620%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6680…c738backed Yes27c329.04$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.0310544.8%47 W · 58 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8200…df37backed Yes46c326.97$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+26.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ba3…6c19backed Yes20c320.29$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.16333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+54.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4113…042ebacked Yes32c312.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick17cpaid+36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6688…fdcebacked No58c310.82$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.42560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf585…2640backed Yes48c305$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes16c304.39$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7111825.4%30 W · 88 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd9f…7f50backed Yes12c303.41$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick25cpaid+39.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No56c300$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.9528528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.