Movies · resolved market
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0842399b1d5e90288b1bc17ce671e947dba095247347149f3c2749ef542556a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $353,579
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $301,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $353,579 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 279 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 5c | 26,375$1,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,391.76 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 17c | 25,277$4,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,423.07 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 30c | 15,994$4,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,862.25 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 40c | 10,032$4,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,024.12 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…c958backed Yes | 17c | 6,769$1,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154.81 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…f723backed No | 52c | 6,000$3,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,850.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb16d…7d91backed No | 59c | 5,000$2,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,045 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 37c | 4,968$1,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,852.12 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda8…0bffbacked No | 72c | 4,900$3,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,386.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 9c | 4,813$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.62 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 34c | 4,435$1,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,516.69 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e86…fce6backed Yes | 46c | 4,391$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,001 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 25c | 4,304$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.96 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 15c | 4,077$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.79 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 26c | 3,250$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.59 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 47c | 2,950$1,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,385.25 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 49c | 2,714$1,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,343.26 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 28c | 2,700$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.55 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 11c | 2,596$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.77 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 42c | 2,558$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.7 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 12c | 2,533$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.7 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…9b10backed Yes | 45c | 2,500$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 20c | 2,378$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.16 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…7d57backed Yes | 19c | 2,221$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.88 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 2,154$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.88 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed No | 51c | 2,123$1,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.75 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xff12…cdc4backed Yes | 0c | 2,117$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…e487backed Yes | 6c | 2,087$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…7b89backed Yes | 50c | 1,998$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb9…6f7abacked No | 70c | 1,818$1,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.53 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 27c | 1,666$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.99 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed Yes | 43c | 1,634$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.9 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 20c | 1,600$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.03 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4634…d158backed Yes | 4c | 1,551$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.03 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 39c | 1,544$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -52%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…ea17backed Yes | 42c | 1,512$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.57 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 27c | 1,504$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.63 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 8c | 1,354$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.86 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x128c…ad12backed Yes | 53c | 1,285$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.85 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed8a…9032backed Yes | 5c | 1,276$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 58c | 1,272$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.56 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f55…4213backed No | 41c | 1,190$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed Yes | 40c | 1,137$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.96 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Yes | 44c | 1,125$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,075$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.68 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…0c57backed Yes | 14c | 1,025$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 43c | 984.43$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.08 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 60c | 954.11$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.07 | 130 | 34.6%45 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb51…f32cbacked Yes | 20c | 952.6$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.66 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85f5…ada8backed Yes | 2c | 930.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 11c | 866.68$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.41 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…317fbacked Yes | 21c | 844.94$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.37 | 75 | 8%6 W · 69 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91fc…0109backed Yes | 55c | 840.1$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.76 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 26c | 837.58$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed Yes | 30c | 804.56$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.06 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9a…58d5backed Yes | 41c | 774.07$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 42c | 709.41$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.28 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 688.71$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.44 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 54c | 671.6$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.96 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a51…8d14backed Yes | 60c | 667.78$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…c67bbacked Yes | 3c | 659.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0b…4d31backed Yes | 34c | 619.83$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.13 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…664abacked No | 56c | 606.44$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x153c…3759backed Yes | 60c | 584.3$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…2e44backed No | 40c | 566.94$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…5593backed No | 63c | 513.11$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe539…08c8backed Yes | 60c | 500.83$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed Yes | 40c | 500$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.5 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 28c | 499.99$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.5 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…b17ebacked Yes | 61c | 499.99$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.99 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed Yes | 36c | 477$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed No | 59c | 450$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.5 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 438.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.63 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5864…76b9backed Yes | 14c | 436.06$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 4c | 435.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed No | 68c | 400.41$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.42 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e2…bb87backed Yes | 16c | 400$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.57 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 62c | 399.99$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.8 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x743d…f77ebacked No | 67c | 382$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…cce9backed Yes | 16c | 378.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 79c | 374.54$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.33 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x731c…637dbacked No | 56c | 368.31$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.31 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 4c | 361.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 353.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d73…d924backed Yes | 28c | 346$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c5…a7e0backed Yes | 28c | 346$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 48c | 342.29$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.81 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x747a…5581backed No | 52c | 342$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab5f…aab9backed Yes | 33c | 338.25$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…ca66backed Yes | 56c | 333.28$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 27c | 329.04$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.03 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8200…df37backed Yes | 46c | 326.97$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba3…6c19backed Yes | 20c | 320.29$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4113…042ebacked Yes | 32c | 312.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6688…fdcebacked No | 58c | 310.82$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf585…2640backed Yes | 48c | 305$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 16c | 304.39$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9f…7f50backed Yes | 12c | 303.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 56c | 300$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.95 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?this page
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 160m and 170m?No won
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 170m and 180m?No won
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m?Yes won
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m?No won
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 160m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.