TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x731c…637d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
95
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Music, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Music at 52 out of 100; worst NBA at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT2035%7 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$463Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$463.2
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+525%+$251.89
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$165
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$299.73
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$65.58
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$432Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+74.3%+$320.58
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$238Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$237.6
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$175
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$840Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$660
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$425Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$425.37
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$644Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+94%+$605.15
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$289Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$289.35
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+181.5%+$193.44
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$39.9
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.77
All 20 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT1926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.6
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$380Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$380
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$142.25
Spread: Pistons (-4.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$255
Spread: Spurs (-12.5)backed Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$640Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$640
Spurs vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.5
Pistons vs. Cavaliersbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$305
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$325Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$175
Spread: Thunder (-16.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$165
Lakers vs. Thunderbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$122
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
Rockets vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$234
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$264Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$263.51
Amen Thompson: Points O/U 17.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Luke Kennard: Points O/U 12.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.17
Rockets vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$153.86
Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$55.88
NBA to pass Luka Doncic’s “Extraordinary Circumstances Challenge”?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.81
All 19 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+490.7%+$290.75
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$245Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$255
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.75
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Will United States win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.5
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.5
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$270Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$230
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$169Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$168.5
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,526Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,526.47
All 10 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT1010%1 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-69.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alvin Kamara be traded?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.7
Will Brian Thomas Jr. be traded?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.81
Will AJ Brown be traded?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+203%+$101.44
Will Arvell Reese be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Carnell Tate be drafted 6th overall in the 2026 pro football draft?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will David Bailey be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Jeremiyah Love be drafted 4th overall in the 2026 pro football draft?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.21
Will 1 quarterback be drafted in the first round of the 2026 pro football draft?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Jeremiyah Love go top 10 in the 2026 Pro Football draft? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$78
Will Francis Mauigoa be drafted 9th overall in the 2026 pro football draft?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 10 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-65.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.58
No one announced as next James Bond?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.59
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$208Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+77.1%+$160.31
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.72
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.23
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.22
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.46
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$370Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$130
All 9 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT70%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-71.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.5
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.39
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+139.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hannah Harper win American Idol Season 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+139.3%+$60.46
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+100%+$250
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$530Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+84.5%+$448.02
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 BNP Paribas Open Men’s Singles Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.58
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.