NFL · resolved market
Will Brian Thomas Jr. be traded?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88938a0e12746a8cba8c4df734f38411828435788866a37f282fc3b176f0dfa3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c72…6e28backed Yes | 2c | 1,591$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 59c | 1,510$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.06 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 12c | 964$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.34 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540c…a634backed Yes | 29c | 781$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.89 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x731c…637dbacked Yes | 6c | 780.12$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 28c | 578.86$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +227.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaef5…a454backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 30c | 408.86$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.47 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 32c | 130$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87a8…445cbacked No | 56c | 125$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfde…3f9cbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c1…7380backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fee…9589backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x438c…481abacked Yes | 28c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588f…3eabbacked Yes | 31c | 88.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…125bbacked Yes | 39c | 60.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a8…c016backed No | 74c | 54.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -62%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb63f…793cbacked Yes | 29c | 48.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x405f…3897backed Yes | 30c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…45d7backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ae…be02backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf9…783cbacked No | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brian Thomas Jr. be traded?this page
- Will AJ Brown be traded?Yes won
- Will Alec Pierce be traded?No won
- Will Alvin Kamara be traded?No won
- Will Breece Hall be traded?No won
- Will D.K. Metcalf be traded?No won
- Will De'Von Achane be traded?No won
- Will Kyler Murray be traded?No won
- Will Mike Evans be traded?No won
- Will Trent Williams be traded?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.