NFL · resolved market
Will Alec Pierce be traded?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37d9713972e16e01b10fc219587266afcf74fd2a419a47f6311d9a89eed32002
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $430,193
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $431,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $430,193 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3c5…2a23backed Yes | 1c | 181,050$1,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,267.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1047…4776backed Yes | 1c | 25,000$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38de…76cabacked Yes | 18c | 270.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a7…f50fbacked Yes | 12c | 116.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c0…dac7backed No | 50c | 64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…4123backed Yes | 50c | 64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…89a4backed No | 51c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4255…6dd5backed No | 49c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd83…c0c2backed Yes | 51c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e74…68c1backed Yes | 49c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b1…9b98backed Yes | 50c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d2…b34bbacked No | 50c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alec Pierce be traded?this page
- Will AJ Brown be traded?Yes won
- Will Alvin Kamara be traded?No won
- Will Breece Hall be traded?No won
- Will Brian Thomas Jr. be traded?No won
- Will D.K. Metcalf be traded?No won
- Will De'Von Achane be traded?No won
- Will Kyler Murray be traded?No won
- Will Mike Evans be traded?No won
- Will Trent Williams be traded?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.