NFL · resolved market
Will D.K. Metcalf be traded?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb311aa52bcdef086836f6eb908e59cca6a2697c6fb8d36a8d3fa6af0c0324d06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,746
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,746 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1047…4776backed Yes | 1c | 15,515$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.59 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 63c | 4,278$2,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,582.82 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 3,032$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.93 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,463$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…7cbabacked No | 9c | 1,463$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,335.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +576.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x540c…a634backed Yes | 35c | 1,455$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.68 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc02c…7c6abacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x561e…2093backed Yes | 34c | 900$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…c193backed Yes | 35c | 800$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 15c | 610.41$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.86 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 35c | 585$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.75 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b5…80eebacked Yes | 6c | 425.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 364.11$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.08 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 5c | 265.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…f28bbacked Yes | 4c | 260$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Yes | 39c | 250$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 207.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 230 | 24.3%56 W · 174 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 63c | 180$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be4…3128backed Yes | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 41c | 114.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 68c | 113$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.84 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x119f…695bbacked Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Yes | 38c | 90$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c61…59b9backed Yes | 29c | 80.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b3…0991backed Yes | 35c | 69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 36c | 63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27b…ecb0backed Yes | 24c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…dd78backed Yes | 68c | 57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 34c | 51.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ae…be02backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffb1…b639backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…125bbacked Yes | 64c | 27.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will D.K. Metcalf be traded?this page
- Will AJ Brown be traded?Yes won
- Will Alec Pierce be traded?No won
- Will Alvin Kamara be traded?No won
- Will Breece Hall be traded?No won
- Will Brian Thomas Jr. be traded?No won
- Will De'Von Achane be traded?No won
- Will Kyler Murray be traded?No won
- Will Mike Evans be traded?No won
- Will Trent Williams be traded?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.