NFL · resolved market
Will AJ Brown be traded?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72036f40280121e8016ab6140ce4e3f2ddc8002329e39cb824fb5fc03faebefd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd75e…bc00backed No | 4c | 1,700$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc740…522fbacked Yes | 51c | 1,467$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 1c | 1,130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -95.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2009…903ebacked No | 50c | 1,100$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 59cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 35c | 799.89$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.19 | 281 | 51.6%145 W · 136 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked No | 6c | 799.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7170…ed44backed No | 45c | 758$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66f2…2badbacked Yes | 55c | 758$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 19c | 726.2$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.46 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed No | 3c | 666.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 13c | 636.82$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.16 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed7…767ebacked No | 4c | 568.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…be9abacked Yes | 19c | 500$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.06 | 92 | 53.3%49 W · 43 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd44…f151backed No | 3c | 499.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa5…8f79backed No | 6c | 402.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 8c | 227.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…229abacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 21c | 198.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.31 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db4…410fbacked Yes | 34c | 193$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.38 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e6…56b6backed Yes | 15c | 179.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed Yes | 32c | 178.91$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.25 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ef…6f4fbacked Yes | 62c | 177.73$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…407abacked Yes | 62c | 171.69$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed Yes | 16c | 157$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked No | 77c | 157$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.14 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x731c…637dbacked Yes | 33c | 151.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.44 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 134$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.2 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Yes | 34c | 110$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1853…5d23backed No | 28c | 108.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed Yes | 31c | 108.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 31cpaid | +227.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed Yes | 33c | 101$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.67 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbabf…e17cbacked Yes | 57c | 96.1$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.15 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fd…26f8backed Yes | 73c | 83.42$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.27per pick | 35cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Yes | 26c | 75.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 16c | 75.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9db…e285backed Yes | 62c | 75.03$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 45c | 71.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +93%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf124…d6fabacked Yes | 42c | 46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 38c | 44.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10df…04a9backed Yes | 29c | 41.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…6838backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd282…a206backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +69%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a59…e94cbacked Yes | 68c | 34.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…d6bdbacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f7…80d2backed Yes | 62c | 32.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +227.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a7…f50fbacked Yes | 41c | 25.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed No | 71c | 21.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4049…4561backed Yes | 63c | 18.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +135.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b30…100fbacked No | 60c | 18.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…36d0backed Yes | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b5…8541backed Yes | 71c | 15.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AJ Brown be traded?this page
- Will Alec Pierce be traded?No won
- Will Alvin Kamara be traded?No won
- Will Breece Hall be traded?No won
- Will Brian Thomas Jr. be traded?No won
- Will D.K. Metcalf be traded?No won
- Will De'Von Achane be traded?No won
- Will Kyler Murray be traded?No won
- Will Mike Evans be traded?No won
- Will Trent Williams be traded?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.