Music · resolved market
Will Hannah Harper win American Idol Season 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1efa3877225e6148aa7405f97f99fe6e83adc4851aa3214136ccf722150422f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $143,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 7c | 22,480$1,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680.91 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 12c | 7,608$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 13c | 2,540$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.47 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 23c | 2,274$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.32 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 13c | 1,751$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.75 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 19c | 1,417$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.88 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0a…38d0backed No | 1c | 1,402$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…ed03backed No | 2c | 1,316$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…7da2backed Yes | 56c | 923.11$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…ac4cbacked No | 53c | 836$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6f41backed No | 53c | 803$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 4c | 641.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…2550backed No | 52c | 604$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43c9…47c1backed Yes | 48c | 604$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 14c | 600$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 4c | 599.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5829…e46bbacked Yes | 47c | 566$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadbd…93f9backed Yes | 47c | 539$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…5ad5backed Yes | 47c | 534$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 16c | 524.55$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.11 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…b97cbacked Yes | 79c | 522.25$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…b17ebacked Yes | 48c | 408.66$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed No | 48c | 391.8$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.57 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 79c | 391.06$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.64 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 58c | 341$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.09 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 43c | 292$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.44 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…3a26backed No | 49c | 290$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa35…4f01backed Yes | 51c | 290$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d48…d6f1backed No | 53c | 278$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 14c | 173.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 49c | 170.89$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.99 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd3…1a5abacked Yes | 49c | 156$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a5…5097backed No | 60c | 151.67$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked Yes | 47c | 141$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5516…2263backed Yes | 47c | 137$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 20c | 106$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x731c…637dbacked Yes | 42c | 103.87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 58c | 58.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 55c | 58.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked No | 39c | 54.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 48c | 44.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 43c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 81 | 28.4%23 W · 58 L | -10.7wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -50%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed No | 57c | 27.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc6…d452backed No | 60c | 23.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…bbf5backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 18 | 94.4%17 W · 1 L | +3.9wins | +0.22per pick | 73cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x758f…e58dbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e93…be55backed Yes | 80c | 16.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hannah Harper win American Idol Season 24?this page
- Will Braden Rumfelt win American Idol Season 24?No won
- Will Brooks Rosser win American Idol Season 24?No won
- Will Jordan McCullough win American Idol Season 24?No won
- Will Keyla Richardson win American Idol Season 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.