TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Pistonsof Cavaliers, Pistons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,944
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,425

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,944 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4283…fbd4backed Pistons66c3,870$2,554 inWon+$1,315.810559%62 W · 43 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Cavaliers34c2,657$904 inLost-$903.526,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pistons79c2,628$2,076 inWon+$552.18,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Pistons64c1,299$831 inWon+$467.5950346.5%234 W · 269 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Cavaliers34c1,077$366 inLost-$366.0166352.6%349 W · 314 L+30.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb693…cfc9backed Cavaliers36c900$320 inLost-$320.4910650%53 W · 53 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Cavaliers36c760$271 inLost-$270.576653.5%410 W · 356 L+65.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+15.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Cavaliers16c626$99 inLost-$98.7845445.2%205 W · 249 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Cavaliers33c616.12$203 inLost-$203.3232045.3%145 W · 175 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x72e6…7bf4backed Pistons63c525.24$330 inWon+$195.61770.6%12 W · 5 L+4.4wins+0.26per pick45cpaid+63%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x731c…637dbacked Pistons65c499.99$325 inWon+$1751926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2003…af6fbacked Cavaliers15c490$74 inLost-$73.55829.3%17 W · 41 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x23f9…3c2dbacked Cavaliers35c429.98$150 inLost-$150.4918643.5%81 W · 105 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Pistons66c415.76$274 inWon+$141.3264948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x28ff…d56cbacked Pistons66c303.03$200 inWon+$103.033070%21 W · 9 L+4.8wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+31.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed Cavaliers35c268.57$94 inLost-$9417848.3%86 W · 92 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb035…d989backed Pistons65c218.14$143 inWon+$75.38862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Pistons65c205.53$134 inWon+$71.944,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Cavaliers34c185.58$64 inLost-$63.521,39946.4%649 W · 750 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3217…7d40backed Pistons66c151.52$100 inWon+$51.522254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd52d…412dbacked Pistons66c151.52$100 inWon+$51.5253539.6%212 W · 323 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Cavaliers34c133.63$45 inLost-$45.421,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Cavaliers34c105.07$36 inLost-$35.7252150.9%265 W · 256 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Cavaliers20c100$20 inLost-$201,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6e6…79b5backed Pistons80c100$80 inWon+$2034169.5%237 W · 104 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc392…595dbacked Cavaliers39c77.65$30 inLost-$3040548.4%196 W · 209 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Cavaliers35c60.75$21 inLost-$20.9830448.4%147 W · 157 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Cavaliers34c55.59$19 inLost-$18.781,27747.2%603 W · 674 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53c5…7f34backed Pistons66c54.35$36 inWon+$18.48475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+30.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3582…88f2backed Pistons66c45.45$30 inWon+$15.451855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Cavaliers34c38$13 inLost-$12.9218653.2%99 W · 87 L+9.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cavaliers32c34.94$11 inLost-$11.0753842%226 W · 312 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa820…2dcebacked Pistons66c30.3$20 inWon+$10.38544.7%38 W · 47 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1dc6…0f52backed Pistons67c22.39$15 inWon+$7.396350.8%32 W · 31 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-17.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2481…878dbacked Pistons66c20$13 inWon+$6.82532%8 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed1b…7ebdbacked Pistons64c16.39$10 inWon+$5.89966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.