TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Pistonsof Cavaliers, Pistons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,052
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,910

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,052 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2003…af6fbacked Cavaliers14c1,420$199 inLost-$198.85829.3%17 W · 41 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x156e…cf6fbacked Cavaliers7c887.5$66 inLost-$662650%13 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Cavaliers2c847.99$17 inLost-$16.6445445.2%205 W · 249 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6340…1bd0backed Cavaliers15c500$75 inLost-$7513128.2%37 W · 94 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Cavaliers20c472$93 inLost-$92.7476653.5%410 W · 356 L+65.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+15.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3b84…a239backed Cavaliers19c396.82$75 inLost-$75.41346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x23f9…3c2dbacked Cavaliers20c250$50 inLost-$5018643.5%81 W · 105 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93da…e0bcbacked Pistons80c200$160 inWon+$40366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-12.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Cavaliers12c199.94$24 inLost-$23.991,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Cavaliers6c187.58$11 inLost-$11.041,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc392…595dbacked Cavaliers18c166.67$30 inLost-$3040548.4%196 W · 209 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cavaliers10c163.27$16 inLost-$16.3953842%226 W · 312 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Cavaliers17c131.65$22 inLost-$22.4452150.9%265 W · 256 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb922…1d3ebacked Pistons80c125$100 inWon+$251070%7 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick70cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Cavaliers18c102.51$18 inLost-$18.451,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Cavaliers19c89.15$17 inLost-$16.531,27747.2%603 W · 674 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed Pistons80c17.54$14 inWon+$3.5114464.6%93 W · 51 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.