NBA · resolved market
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 107.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29342421c130e278e204b447325c3e76a4d60fe5d03b08ac44bd1210de36eb2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,940
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,940 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x617b…a499backed Under | 51c | 2,286$1,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.52 | 877 | 50.2%440 W · 437 L | -19.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Over | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 1%1 W · 97 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 55c | 1,094$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.49 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Over | 2c | 1,055$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Over | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 123 | 6.5%8 W · 115 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 48c | 724$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.52 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 47c | 609.52$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.48 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…dcd2backed Over | 52c | 481.11$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.18 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa03f…fa16backed Over | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 407.76$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.66 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2df…ca29backed Over | 51c | 403.73$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.9 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 45c | 336.81$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.56 | 698 | 48.6%339 W · 359 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x565a…3207backed Over | 45c | 276.44$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Over | 17c | 235.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 48c | 209$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 498 | 52.6%262 W · 236 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…44bcbacked Over | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba9…c25fbacked Over | 50c | 199.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e24…b31fbacked Over | 49c | 152.46$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 143 | 57.3%82 W · 61 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Over | 45c | 126.67$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -7.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Over | 19c | 125$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 228 | 44.7%102 W · 126 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 43c | 101.29$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.73 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 292 | 43.8%128 W · 164 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 560 | 43.9%246 W · 314 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Under | 51c | 72.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…9d16backed Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066e…6ba5backed Under | 55c | 62.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 454 | 45.4%206 W · 248 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…f4d0backed Under | 49c | 51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Under | 55c | 50.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 405 | 46.9%190 W · 215 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 57c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x970f…f167backed Under | 72c | 41.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Over | 44c | 32.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Over | 50c | 32.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…0073backed Under | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 56c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 107.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Pistons won
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Pistons won
- Ausar Thompson: Rebounds O/U 1.5Yes won
- Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Jalen Duren: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Pistons vs. CavaliersPistons won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 201.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 204.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 206.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 208.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 209.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 212.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 215.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 219.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-6.5)Pistons won
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Tobias Harris: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.