NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82d9ba40399c53477d0ec8493b24518a9f0defce48a735e64278b659790e641e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pistonsof Cavaliers, Pistons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,242
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,242 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Pistons | 54c | 13,533$7,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,225.38 | 726 | 48.3%351 W · 375 L | +30.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cavaliers | 46c | 5,989$2,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,753.13 | 649 | 48.2%313 W · 336 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Cavaliers | 45c | 2,575$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,152.36 | 698 | 48.6%339 W · 359 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Cavaliers | 45c | 2,181$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.45 | 568 | 43.8%249 W · 319 L | -25.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…8d9bbacked Cavaliers | 46c | 2,174$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 203 | 52.7%107 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pistons | 55c | 2,084$1,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.8 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cavaliers | 45c | 2,024$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.74 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf93d…fc9bbacked Pistons | 56c | 1,786$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.71 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +32%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea48…c596backed Cavaliers | 45c | 1,318$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.1 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers | 24c | 1,277$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.54 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Pistons | 55c | 1,200$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476d…0c42backed Cavaliers | 45c | 862.93$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.32 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73da…b7acbacked Cavaliers | 45c | 821.71$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.77 | 200 | 57%114 W · 86 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa62a…f05bbacked Pistons | 77c | 778.35$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.35 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26ca…efc3backed Pistons | 55c | 727.27$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.27 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9d…992bbacked Cavaliers | 46c | 654.27$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 118 | 34.7%41 W · 77 L | -9.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Cavaliers | 42c | 638.27$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.07 | 1,341 | 29.9%401 W · 940 L | -53.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…6a99backed Cavaliers | 46c | 621.48$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.88 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Pistons | 56c | 590.15$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.66 | 650 | 45.1%293 W · 357 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Cavaliers | 44c | 576.98$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.87 | 620 | 51.1%317 W · 303 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Cavaliers | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cavaliers | 19c | 470.19$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.31 | 538 | 42%226 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23f9…3c2dbacked Cavaliers | 45c | 450$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 186 | 43.5%81 W · 105 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d4…b79fbacked Pistons | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cavaliers | 43c | 327.47$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.81 | 552 | 51.3%283 W · 269 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Cavaliers | 18c | 311$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 428 | 42.5%182 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Pistons | 57c | 280$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.4 | 412 | 27.4%113 W · 299 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Cavaliers | 45c | 271$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.95 | 1,322 | 49.9%660 W · 662 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde6…764bbacked Pistons | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 440 | 52.5%231 W · 209 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Cavaliers | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee9…1362backed Pistons | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 122 | 48.4%59 W · 63 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Pistons | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 535 | 39.6%212 W · 323 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7492…6568backed Pistons | 57c | 176$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.68 | 319 | 55.2%176 W · 143 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Cavaliers | 8c | 156$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.10per pick | 9cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Pistons | 55c | 150$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…a330backed Pistons | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -5.8wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -28%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35c9…bc74backed Cavaliers | 46c | 130.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 346 | 61.6%213 W · 133 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…650cbacked Cavaliers | 19c | 121.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -36%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Pistons | 55c | 114.56$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.55 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Cavaliers | 44c | 108.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.59 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Pistons | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Pistons | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Cavaliers | 45c | 82.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 186 | 53.2%99 W · 87 L | +9.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cavaliers | 45c | 72.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…595dbacked Cavaliers | 44c | 67.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 405 | 48.4%196 W · 209 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8537…b98bbacked Pistons | 55c | 67.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…b09bbacked Pistons | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 158 | 57%90 W · 68 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15db…1da8backed Pistons | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f18…d8f5backed Pistons | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 92 | 71.7%66 W · 26 L | +11.0wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Cavaliers | 46c | 44.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Cavaliers | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -10.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Cavaliers | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Pistons | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Pistons | 69c | 36.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Cavaliers | 44c | 31.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…746bbacked Cavaliers | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Cavaliers | 45c | 29.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 304 | 48.4%147 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d8e…13febacked Pistons | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3f…6d9ebacked Pistons | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.9wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Pistons | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed1b…7ebdbacked Pistons | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Pistons won
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Pistons won
- Ausar Thompson: Rebounds O/U 1.5Yes won
- Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Jalen Duren: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Pistons vs. CavaliersPistons won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 107.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 201.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 204.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 206.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 208.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 209.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 212.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 215.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 219.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-6.5)Pistons won
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Tobias Harris: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.