NBA · resolved market
James Harden: Points O/U 19.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfaaef80e8d050d9dec7da9dbbc2bcda441ef74fe9100cb304549c99847ef5857
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,237
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,372
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,237 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 47c | 2,396$1,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.4 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x276b…8a8bbacked Yes | 53c | 1,483$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a9…e2dbbacked Yes | 54c | 1,126$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.89 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Yes | 53c | 900$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.23 | 170 | 47.6%81 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Yes | 51c | 739.98$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.29 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed No | 48c | 676.01$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe462…e436backed Yes | 52c | 568.17$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 48c | 444$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.12 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 53c | 443$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.12 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed No | 56c | 343.84$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.25 | 205 | 58.5%120 W · 85 L | +19.6wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 47c | 279.98$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.59 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed No | 48c | 208.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.31 | 498 | 52.6%262 W · 236 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x535e…3cb6backed Yes | 54c | 183.53$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes | 48c | 125.41$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.21 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…44bcbacked Yes | 31c | 125$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked No | 54c | 108.89$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.19 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked No | 39c | 101.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 99 | 41.4%41 W · 58 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 48c | 100.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 538 | 42%226 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 560 | 43.9%246 W · 314 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbc…3122backed No | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 54c | 88.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Yes | 52c | 76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed No | 48c | 69.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 437 | 52.6%230 W · 207 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 45c | 64.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 428 | 42.5%182 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed No | 53c | 47.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 188 | 53.7%101 W · 87 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3988…7ae9backed No | 27c | 44.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac50…d728backed Yes | 52c | 42.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…162dbacked Yes | 74c | 41.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 48c | 41.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd68f…6fdfbacked No | 38c | 39.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 47c | 39.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 55c | 37.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 156 | 63.5%99 W · 57 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb922…1d3ebacked Yes | 73c | 36.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec7…ed98backed No | 56c | 35.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…9ce4backed Yes | 50c | 35.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 199 | 52.3%104 W · 95 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed No | 48c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 131 | 61.8%81 W · 50 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed No | 47c | 27.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcff…4f4bbacked Yes | 38c | 27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b9…66aabacked No | 58c | 20.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- James Harden: Points O/U 19.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Pistons won
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Pistons won
- Ausar Thompson: Rebounds O/U 1.5Yes won
- Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Jalen Duren: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Pistons vs. CavaliersPistons won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 107.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 201.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 204.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 206.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 208.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 209.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 212.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 215.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 219.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-6.5)Pistons won
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Tobias Harris: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.