AI · resolved market
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a65d4eb8ac985309e78b48906291fffbf137cee590d8d75365f77a0549e9ab9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $224,955
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $225,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $224,955 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 734 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b11…38e8backed Yes | 1c | 10,744$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.73 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…3586backed Yes | 1c | 7,340$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8295…3c7cbacked Yes | 63c | 4,940$3,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,112.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x051e…3993backed Yes | 2c | 3,267$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be8…b383backed Yes | 8c | 2,642$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e55…07acbacked Yes | 4c | 2,576$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd357…cd28backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x858c…fb31backed Yes | 2c | 1,943$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab9…2ff1backed Yes | 61c | 1,626$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.6 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x466e…ed99backed No | 41c | 1,571$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$926.12 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…e748backed No | 45c | 1,462$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…534abacked Yes | 22c | 1,395$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.52 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…e974backed Yes | 59c | 1,349$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.26 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…92cabacked Yes | 49c | 1,343$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.09 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…02c0backed Yes | 54c | 1,201$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.54 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…ca4fbacked No | 61c | 1,162$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.18 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c9…99aabacked Yes | 52c | 1,125$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed Yes | 47c | 1,095$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.65 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x217e…09debacked Yes | 54c | 1,086$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.02 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed Yes | 54c | 1,085$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.9 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,080$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.79 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45ff…bab6backed No | 53c | 1,035$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed No | 50c | 1,035$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.46 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8718…6741backed Yes | 54c | 1,008$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed No | 43c | 996$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.55 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a40…904bbacked Yes | 55c | 971$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeae3…4143backed No | 57c | 965.54$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.53 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0af…7ec6backed Yes | 47c | 957$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf100…2fcabacked No | 57c | 951$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.93 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +79%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…72f1backed Yes | 47c | 944$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.68 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…b750backed Yes | 46c | 942$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.46 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked Yes | 53c | 936$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.32 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…c888backed No | 53c | 908$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.76 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed No | 46c | 902$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.08 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +5.5wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…271abacked No | 44c | 897$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.44 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…f7eabacked Yes | 47c | 895$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.65 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7410…ad32backed No | 38c | 884$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfec9…b7c0backed No | 35c | 870$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3d…aa1abacked Yes | 54c | 861$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.94 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed No | 51c | 857$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.93 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7786…7914backed Yes | 40c | 847$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.8 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.38per pick | 40cpaid | +120%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed0…0532backed Yes | 60c | 839$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.03 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 26c | 838.66$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.49 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a4…aa57backed No | 50c | 832$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…35e8backed No | 48c | 819$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.88 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68d5…8bd4backed Yes | 5c | 812.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d66…fc54backed No | 49c | 803$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.16 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d4…0a2fbacked Yes | 3c | 800$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e17…0d52backed No | 49c | 777$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.55 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.35per pick | 42cpaid | +122.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…aff0backed Yes | 55c | 768$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.4 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +5.4wins | +0.30per pick | 31cpaid | +144.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x11c6…e25ebacked Yes | 39c | 758$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.62 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a8…7efabacked No | 45c | 755$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.25 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.34per pick | 48cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed Yes | 52c | 745$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.4 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fd…f0b5backed Yes | 40c | 743$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.2 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.34per pick | 42cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed No | 43c | 728$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.96 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…e392backed Yes | 53c | 722$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7544…0caebacked Yes | 49c | 722$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59f3…a7fabacked No | 43c | 715$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.55 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ba…c705backed Yes | 62c | 704$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.48 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e77…3273backed Yes | 48c | 699$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.52 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d2…3e62backed No | 46c | 698$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6f41backed Yes | 54c | 698$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.92 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71fb…9b65backed Yes | 63c | 696$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed No | 47c | 696$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.76 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b32…c8a9backed No | 48c | 690$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.8 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaa…4456backed No | 58c | 685$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…cd36backed No | 33c | 671$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.57 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba3d…cdfabacked Yes | 67c | 669.63$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9a…cc24backed No | 52c | 667$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.16 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…b46ebacked Yes | 57c | 665$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.05 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…77adbacked No | 44c | 663.14$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.55 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd91d…91fdbacked Yes | 43c | 661$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5374…952abacked Yes | 56c | 657$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.92 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed No | 47c | 656$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.14 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…5009backed No | 34c | 652$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +191.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf351…6284backed Yes | 50c | 646$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfe…6108backed Yes | 42c | 639$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.38 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…8234backed No | 46c | 638$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…c83bbacked Yes | 50c | 635$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed Yes | 50c | 635$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.33 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c9…bee7backed Yes | 54c | 634$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.36 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b92…7585backed No | 43c | 628$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…e61bbacked Yes | 57c | 625$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b1…0005backed No | 44c | 618$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…b418backed No | 53c | 617$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes | 62c | 613$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.06 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7775…6cb4backed Yes | 39c | 609$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.51 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf23e…aec3backed No | 43c | 595$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…2550backed No | 51c | 590$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.1 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ff…986cbacked Yes | 47c | 577$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +138.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed No | 43c | 576$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.32 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…5ad5backed No | 48c | 574$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…7359backed No | 37c | 573$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb407…a978backed No | 60c | 569$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed No | 53c | 547$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.09 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…9416backed No | 50c | 547$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…6562backed No | 53c | 537$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.39 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…81a5backed No | 43c | 524$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.68 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7c…5a5fbacked No | 51c | 523$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.27 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.52per pick | 32cpaid | +164.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…7f4fbacked No | 47c | 518$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.54 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?this page
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 14?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 21?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by December 31?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by February 28?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by January 31?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 15?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 20?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by November 30?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?Yes won
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.