AI · resolved market
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf32b4a217c6af98fcb7febd932f9a272af0ba8649f3731cbbba5f8ed700b081e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7ac…c7e2backed No | 7c | 1,503$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc538…c555backed No | 2c | 1,111$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 1c | 989.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…425bbacked No | 1c | 910.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked No | 4c | 862.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed No | 10c | 776.9$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.69 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b58…3550backed No | 3c | 683.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 3c | 533$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 3c | 492.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 5c | 232.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 11c | 205.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed No | 8c | 193.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 8c | 164.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcecf…e206backed No | 49c | 50.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed Yes | 51c | 50.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?this page
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 14?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 21?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by December 31?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by February 28?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by January 31?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 15?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 20?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by November 30?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?Yes won
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.