AI · resolved market
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf582893f97c06a7929c7c14657b4265a0ff06bcee8cdaadc43a889e720249cdc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,453
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,453 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2dfe…0a5ebacked No | 7c | 3,798$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed No | 14c | 3,466$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.19 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd198…8797backed No | 17c | 3,325$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 1c | 3,277$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed No | 16c | 3,141$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.45 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 4c | 2,623$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 12c | 2,505$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.85 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 1c | 2,100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 81 | 1.2%1 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 4c | 1,344$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 13c | 1,064$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.42 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 77c | 1,005$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.22 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 14c | 999.96$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.99 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 6c | 972.82$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4baf…5fdfbacked Yes | 79c | 920.13$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.72 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9396…040cbacked No | 11c | 905.85$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 7c | 898.74$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a8…9cf9backed No | 3c | 885$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked No | 10c | 883.82$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.9 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +124%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 14c | 879.01$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.15 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa6…6316backed No | 11c | 793.38$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…94abbacked No | 4c | 715.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +111.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14d7…db87backed Yes | 73c | 688.44$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.44 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 685$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 7c | 620$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.34 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…fb45backed No | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4400…38c0backed No | 11c | 484.93$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8da6…4f70backed No | 22c | 459.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d8…0c91backed Yes | 78c | 449.35$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…5e6abacked No | 15c | 428.63$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…5f5abacked No | 9c | 419.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +18%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd029…9b8fbacked No | 8c | 400.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…6034backed Yes | 80c | 400$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e06…d668backed No | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 13c | 383.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 9c | 361.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b11…38e8backed Yes | 78c | 341.89$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.52 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 78c | 329.35$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.89 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 7c | 316.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 11c | 300.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43c8…0551backed No | 5c | 299.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…14a4backed No | 14c | 299.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 6c | 277.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48c7…e4b0backed No | 11c | 274.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 16c | 236.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 14c | 224.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 10c | 203.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c39…0a3ebacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6c…eb44backed No | 6c | 181.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…eb3bbacked No | 12c | 173.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed No | 8c | 170.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 9c | 161.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed No | 10c | 132.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 11c | 132$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 120.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bc…ce3bbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…4fe8backed No | 12c | 99.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 15c | 97.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec2d…de68backed No | 31c | 59.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Yes | 80c | 46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3c…b7dcbacked Yes | 76c | 39.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 77c | 27.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 62c | 20.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x461d…d439backed Yes | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 78c | 12.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?this page
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 14?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 21?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by December 31?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by February 28?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by January 31?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 15?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 20?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by November 30?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?Yes won
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.