AI · resolved market
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e7f9ca2cf14c89b5c43186b391636fe3257b6e54561af8435690c8e558a7739
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $258,104
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $273,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $258,104 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 566 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8295…3c7cbacked Yes | 58c | 15,050$8,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,727.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 35c | 14,507$5,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,081.23 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x922f…a1a8backed No | 62c | 10,014$6,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,777.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae3…4143backed No | 48c | 4,527$2,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,354.1 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 34c | 3,425$1,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,153.41 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14d7…db87backed Yes | 59c | 3,371$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…aa07backed No | 42c | 2,484$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,430.07 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed Yes | 49c | 1,699$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.62 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked Yes | 56c | 1,608$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.11 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9941…7fd9backed Yes | 58c | 1,553$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.85 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.9wins | -0.44per pick | 55cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e0…a63bbacked Yes | 56c | 1,532$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.18 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -50%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82dd…5514backed No | 47c | 1,480$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.4 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed No | 48c | 1,433$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.16 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbad…d056backed Yes | 71c | 1,430$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.77 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +1,240.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…cd36backed Yes | 56c | 1,424$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.44 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4657…00d6backed No | 48c | 1,410$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…db83backed Yes | 58c | 1,386$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.14 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x858c…fb31backed Yes | 3c | 1,358$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 65c | 1,340$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.71 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…703cbacked No | 59c | 1,312$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.92 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c19…77cdbacked No | 50c | 1,308$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked No | 59c | 1,299$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.59 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…72f1backed Yes | 41c | 1,295$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.95 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…35e8backed Yes | 54c | 1,273$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.38 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe794…321cbacked Yes | 53c | 1,268$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed Yes | 57c | 1,260$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.69 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x416c…8dcebacked No | 47c | 1,259$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.27 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed Yes | 41c | 1,233$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.53 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04d4…be7cbacked No | 47c | 1,219$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.07 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa22e…109cbacked No | 44c | 1,209$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.16 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…3586backed Yes | 3c | 1,173$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3c…a29ebacked No | 59c | 1,154$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.14 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x326e…c7b9backed Yes | 52c | 1,152$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.04 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…7d8abacked Yes | 55c | 1,107$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.85 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbec…8dccbacked No | 44c | 1,100$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a8…2a44backed Yes | 57c | 1,089$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.89 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5544…802abacked No | 47c | 1,082$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.46 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked Yes | 56c | 1,057$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.92 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9498…d950backed Yes | 55c | 1,047$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.85 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…73a0backed Yes | 42c | 1,044$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.48 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed No | 40c | 1,037$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.41 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +5.6wins | +0.28per pick | 42cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7c…a11bbacked Yes | 65c | 1,021$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.65 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…7763backed Yes | 63c | 1,003$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed Yes | 56c | 987$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.72 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…2372backed No | 53c | 973$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.46 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +73%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…b750backed Yes | 56c | 943$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.08 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f2…95debacked Yes | 56c | 891$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.96 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…bd74backed Yes | 52c | 882$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.64 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e0…ad86backed No | 35c | 864$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…9cefbacked Yes | 52c | 860$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked No | 46c | 858$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.24 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +46%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…c83bbacked No | 41c | 851$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.09 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf666…8842backed Yes | 61c | 845.99$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.06 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb5…839bbacked Yes | 3c | 833.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked No | 44c | 831$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.36 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1326…d13dbacked No | 50c | 828$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 36cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac89…ba4cbacked No | 42c | 825$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…200fbacked Yes | 58c | 825$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8718…6741backed Yes | 54c | 814$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c5…b4e1backed No | 46c | 806$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +203.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 800.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac7e…be9cbacked No | 38c | 799.64$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…a01fbacked No | 48c | 772$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.44 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…b46ebacked No | 34c | 742$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.72 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…e0ecbacked Yes | 51c | 735$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.85 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…ee38backed No | 44c | 733$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.48 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…4f63backed Yes | 53c | 725$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.25 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x647e…88c8backed Yes | 52c | 712$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.24 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.36per pick | 42cpaid | +199.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked Yes | 41c | 711$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.51 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb212…0f8ebacked Yes | 76c | 701$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd70e…0ac1backed Yes | 51c | 697$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.47 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed Yes | 53c | 688$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.34 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes | 52c | 688$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.76 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked No | 49c | 679$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.29 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…add3backed Yes | 53c | 677$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.81 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed Yes | 60c | 674$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.4 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ec…62aabacked Yes | 67c | 664$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.88 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd4…c334backed No | 49c | 664$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.64 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab9…2ff1backed No | 37c | 662$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.06 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked Yes | 67c | 655$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.85 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 53c | 654$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.78 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed No | 40c | 649$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8d…fc01backed No | 45c | 643$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.65 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…305bbacked No | 43c | 640$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.8 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca87…3701backed No | 45c | 640$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…c03ebacked Yes | 62c | 640$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e17…0d52backed No | 49c | 632$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.32 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.35per pick | 42cpaid | +122.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…4d9abacked Yes | 51c | 630$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed Yes | 53c | 627$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.31 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed Yes | 52c | 627$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.04 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed No | 45c | 618$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.9 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2566…7d60backed No | 47c | 618$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.54 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed Yes | 60c | 614$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.21 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e5…d252backed No | 34c | 614$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.24 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08c9…bee7backed No | 49c | 608$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.68 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadbd…93f9backed No | 44c | 596$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.76 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +5.2wins | +0.35per pick | 52cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x14d5…1f63backed No | 45c | 596$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6813…39e6backed No | 45c | 586$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.3 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…f0eabacked No | 44c | 575$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e57…6c04backed Yes | 55c | 574$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.7 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?this page
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 14?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 21?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by December 31?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by February 28?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by January 31?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 15?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 20?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by November 30?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?Yes won
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.