AI · resolved market
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x322e86092d4f835a6259c68e15f09bcc1fc5d721917fff4e9804218cb6a83629
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 1c | 9,331$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd7…87c9backed Yes | 4c | 7,524$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x045a…b9a4backed Yes | 1c | 6,500$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44fc…ac29backed Yes | 2c | 3,858$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.47 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebc7…653bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,392$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7522…df3cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,304$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edf…03b6backed Yes | 12c | 2,404$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…a633backed Yes | 1c | 1,920$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70da…073abacked Yes | 1c | 1,820$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,759$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ca…01a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,620$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…8052backed Yes | 5c | 1,491$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b11…38e8backed Yes | 16c | 1,282$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.83 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0d…bd03backed Yes | 8c | 1,207$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec07…ca80backed Yes | 5c | 1,086$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0540…8913backed Yes | 8c | 1,008$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 11c | 998.39$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…0437backed Yes | 10c | 989.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7805…1baebacked Yes | 3c | 759.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x086c…d02abacked Yes | 3c | 712.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…2e06backed Yes | 2c | 672.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354e…cadebacked Yes | 3c | 672.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…77d5backed Yes | 2c | 623.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 2c | 606.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11b2…19c8backed Yes | 3c | 534.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9a…50acbacked Yes | 3c | 517.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x601e…7773backed Yes | 8c | 487.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ee…801bbacked Yes | 4c | 423$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked Yes | 5c | 361.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8da6…4f70backed No | 78c | 346.47$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceae…2f49backed Yes | 14c | 273.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b14…3e42backed Yes | 11c | 267.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 5c | 224.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x643c…3fc2backed Yes | 26c | 139$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 79c | 127.43$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 10c | 125$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…5ed6backed Yes | 14c | 122.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d88…39d8backed Yes | 20c | 76.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed No | 37c | 51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3b…8c8dbacked Yes | 37c | 33.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed No | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 15?this page
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 14?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 21?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by December 31?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by February 28?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by January 31?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 20?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by November 30?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?Yes won
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.