AI · resolved market
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a4d3cf51d27425b0c51d241a7ba6bc44dd27034b44f9e437624f9e0953b1ea9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $179,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $165,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $179,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 295 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes | 30c | 5,045$1,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,507.69 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecab…6a63backed Yes | 4c | 4,993$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeae3…4143backed No | 54c | 3,644$1,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,658.34 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 5c | 1,914$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.52 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0060…4cc4backed Yes | 47c | 1,742$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.33 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed Yes | 44c | 1,737$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.97 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 76c | 1,673$1,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.76 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…f5a6backed Yes | 20c | 1,550$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 19c | 1,500$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4baf…5fdfbacked Yes | 31c | 1,425$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.68 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,415$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93c9…c29abacked Yes | 22c | 1,388$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…db77backed No | 58c | 1,370$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.3 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d03…ef8ebacked No | 54c | 1,359$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.94 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96be…9947backed Yes | 21c | 1,296$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 22c | 1,269$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.77 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0315…ca04backed No | 48c | 1,237$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc2…297bbacked No | 48c | 1,224$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked No | 50c | 1,177$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.23 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed Yes | 39c | 1,109$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.51 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…c888backed Yes | 43c | 1,103$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.29 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked Yes | 52c | 1,079$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.08 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…52f9backed Yes | 31c | 1,055$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.68 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 33c | 1,050$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.21 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6c…26e0backed Yes | 49c | 1,043$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…9ed1backed No | 48c | 997$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f2…95debacked Yes | 52c | 968$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.36 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 51c | 964.52$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.6 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…5b6bbacked Yes | 52c | 958$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.16 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4744…e229backed Yes | 37c | 947$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.39 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbe…04b4backed Yes | 43c | 926$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…6b65backed Yes | 48c | 917$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.16 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…44c2backed Yes | 33c | 903$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.99 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ed…28e1backed Yes | 46c | 899$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.43 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed No | 63c | 896$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.52 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2756…42efbacked No | 58c | 895$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.9 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed No | 57c | 891$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.13 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4b…b8e6backed Yes | 50c | 886.32$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80d…b42bbacked No | 48c | 885$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes | 47c | 883.25$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.12 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes | 47c | 878$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.66 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x942b…e25ebacked Yes | 47c | 855.89$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefc0…4942backed Yes | 52c | 854$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.08 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed No | 67c | 853$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.74 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…4bffbacked Yes | 52c | 849$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.48 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1832…af9ebacked No | 63c | 844$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.28 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -62%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 80c | 826.83$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.29 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…87bfbacked Yes | 39c | 789$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.97 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6f41backed Yes | 37c | 778$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.86 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddfe…4c2ebacked Yes | 10c | 777$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 80c | 774.69$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…5013backed Yes | 25c | 770$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…9cefbacked No | 54c | 762$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.52 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…095ebacked Yes | 49c | 756$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.44 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 26c | 728.34$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.05 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked Yes | 46c | 728$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.88 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed Yes | 43c | 715$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.45 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…b54dbacked No | 67c | 715$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.95 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…9896backed Yes | 37c | 708$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.96 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +91%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed No | 57c | 685$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.55 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c5…b4e1backed Yes | 52c | 684$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.68 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +203.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 49c | 680$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.28 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…a73cbacked Yes | 52c | 675$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a04…2310backed No | 48c | 667$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec9…3213backed No | 48c | 657$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.64 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a10…e7d3backed No | 63c | 649$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.13 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd020…7180backed Yes | 5c | 640.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed No | 63c | 630$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.1 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 13c | 625.6$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.61 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8d…fc01backed Yes | 52c | 622$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.44 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…0da3backed Yes | 49c | 614$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.86 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed Yes | 48c | 602$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.32 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…f5ebbacked Yes | 49c | 602$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.98 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc4…4a8ebacked Yes | 43c | 595$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.33 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b82…1712backed No | 59c | 593$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7534…d51bbacked Yes | 41c | 584$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.44 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked Yes | 47c | 576$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.72 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…0c57backed No | 48c | 575$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b2…9d96backed No | 54c | 569$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.74 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed No | 61c | 563$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.77 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed No | 54c | 559$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.14 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes | 47c | 549$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.88 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc772…9be7backed Yes | 17c | 548.95$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…f13cbacked Yes | 35c | 545.44$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9941…7fd9backed Yes | 44c | 543$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.92 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.9wins | -0.44per pick | 55cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…9e54backed Yes | 37c | 539.42$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c19…77cdbacked No | 48c | 539$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.28 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ad…5efebacked No | 67c | 533.32$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.84 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed No | 51c | 532$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.68 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked Yes | 52c | 531$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.12 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…2bcdbacked Yes | 52c | 527$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.04 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd22a…ac22backed Yes | 46c | 521$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.66 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 11c | 518.89$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.02 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked No | 59c | 515$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.05 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked No | 51c | 510$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.9 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7155…d866backed No | 63c | 507$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.59 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d33…e1d9backed Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed No | 49c | 500$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.63 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x434f…484cbacked No | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?this page
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 14?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 21?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by December 31?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by February 28?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by January 31?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 15?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 20?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by November 30?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?Yes won
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.