AI · resolved market
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebe4cbe5f3890e3ea9a489f5f8a6440aa556fdbc952c0f2edf7bbadbc8877fcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $192,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $197,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $192,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 253 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48d5…ec29backed No | 4c | 15,726$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef07…bb26backed Yes | 56c | 10,652$5,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,663.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked No | 55c | 9,749$5,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,326.28 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…c8bbbacked No | 45c | 9,081$4,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,045.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc381…a661backed No | 38c | 7,063$2,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,678.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…9a5ebacked No | 7c | 5,226$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.18 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…3af9backed No | 1c | 5,152$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ef…468bbacked No | 49c | 5,113$2,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,492.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked No | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 65c | 3,671$2,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,284.98 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked Yes | 56c | 3,629$2,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,593.76 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 30c | 3,004$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.06 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bb…fc39backed No | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa62a…a8ffbacked No | 43c | 2,972$1,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 2,949$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 70c | 2,641$1,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.01 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…f5a6backed No | 4c | 2,374$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b11…38e8backed No | 42c | 2,331$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.58 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…7cbabacked No | 0c | 2,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1682…26cabacked No | 2c | 2,088$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5d…909abacked Yes | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14d7…db87backed Yes | 53c | 1,902$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.62 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa21…1438backed Yes | 57c | 1,766$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…2f6dbacked Yes | 64c | 1,690$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…71a6backed Yes | 59c | 1,375$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee69…05d0backed Yes | 63c | 1,323$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.02 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 46cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 48c | 1,265$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.63 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked Yes | 51c | 1,149$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.22 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7b…eba3backed Yes | 50c | 1,103$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes | 51c | 1,090$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.07 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes | 62c | 999.98$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.81 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc93f…445dbacked No | 2c | 965$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8d…f004backed No | 3c | 937.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…87f7backed Yes | 58c | 900$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 53c | 881.7$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.7 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45e8…cc6cbacked No | 64c | 846.87$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.82 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a77…f859backed No | 47c | 835.44$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 69c | 811.76$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.58 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…0919backed Yes | 59c | 800$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.43 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbad…d056backed Yes | 80c | 800$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +1,240.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 12c | 760$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 42c | 758.85$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.51 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 48c | 752.89$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.39 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 40c | 745.11$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.31 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked No | 2c | 732.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 49c | 730$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.04 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 718.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf85d…fabcbacked No | 33c | 707.11$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…7d57backed Yes | 53c | 706.02$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.13 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 38c | 625$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.65 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 63c | 600$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd8…d3ddbacked No | 63c | 552.68$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…bad5backed No | 51c | 533.85$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.82 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 56c | 513.91$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.87 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8da6…4f70backed No | 48c | 504.39$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.61 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd198…8797backed No | 44c | 500$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb39c…60ccbacked Yes | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…a1babacked Yes | 67c | 499.39$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 68c | 485.2$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.19 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…a80dbacked Yes | 48c | 446.54$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e8…5c8cbacked Yes | 54c | 408.1$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…1762backed No | 29c | 403$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 56c | 400$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6084…79c6backed Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed No | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 40c | 400$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…fb45backed Yes | 47c | 400$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 40c | 378.78$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.72 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Yes | 63c | 376.93$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.82 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a91…0776backed Yes | 70c | 368.47$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc81c…e454backed Yes | 59c | 350$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 24c | 338$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.32 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +124%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2b…841dbacked Yes | 58c | 328.84$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x360f…31a1backed Yes | 58c | 327.14$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc883…c2cbbacked Yes | 58c | 326.22$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f4…972bbacked Yes | 58c | 323.54$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c1…16c0backed Yes | 73c | 302.97$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.97 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4de…3920backed Yes | 58c | 300.62$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03bc…530cbacked Yes | 68c | 299.99$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed No | 49c | 277.91$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.16 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…75d6backed Yes | 73c | 277.7$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 42c | 269.47$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.63 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 68c | 269$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.08 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…9ff9backed No | 45c | 250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 51c | 249.92$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.66 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa591…9079backed Yes | 67c | 236.03$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.87 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…dbd9backed Yes | 47c | 214.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +71%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c1…e7f3backed Yes | 63c | 211.3$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.01 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed No | 48c | 201$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.48 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa52f…0429backed No | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…357cbacked No | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…c193backed No | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…8aabbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…73aebacked No | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89af…cd79backed No | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44fc…ac29backed Yes | 74c | 200$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7c…b8c7backed Yes | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b66…a95abacked Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x848b…35f5backed No | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?this page
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 14?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 21?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by December 31?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by February 28?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by January 31?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 15?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 20?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by November 30?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?No won
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.