AI · resolved market
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc48adad41230bb3e1cc1e6ac50560225cea311cb75c33a900f0133d15a9ba4ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $163,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $171,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $163,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 397 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70ff…b65fbacked No | 3c | 9,028$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.28 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +164.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 30c | 7,233$2,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,194.65 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 11c | 5,123$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.48 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 33c | 4,576$1,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,526.97 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes | 67c | 4,296$2,885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410.27 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 53c | 3,500$1,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,841.62 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfe…0a5ebacked No | 20c | 3,277$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48d5…ec29backed Yes | 79c | 3,186$2,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked Yes | 64c | 2,697$1,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.46 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked No | 37c | 2,539$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.59 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…3fcbbacked Yes | 68c | 2,419$1,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5001…bc10backed No | 31c | 2,320$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 52c | 2,231$1,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.96 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed No | 34c | 2,206$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.73 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…f5a6backed Yes | 76c | 2,161$1,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.16 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ee…801bbacked No | 37c | 1,773$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed No | 35c | 1,548$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.76 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 50c | 1,521$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.15 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…9ccdbacked No | 50c | 1,514$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e2…36b0backed Yes | 73c | 1,368$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.77 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd198…8797backed No | 40c | 1,340$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2637…26e1backed Yes | 66c | 1,264$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x266e…17e5backed Yes | 76c | 1,256$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 32c | 1,204$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.09 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…32a2backed Yes | 39c | 1,164$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7e…1cc7backed No | 17c | 1,111$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 41c | 1,020$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…cdaabacked No | 37c | 1,000$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.91 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x027e…c97fbacked No | 24c | 960.92$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae9…d661backed No | 62c | 917.48$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.35 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d8…0c91backed No | 25c | 892.45$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 3c | 800$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 81 | 1.2%1 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0a…e172backed Yes | 66c | 757.12$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 42c | 691.07$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.39 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…5daabacked No | 8c | 682.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e1…cf05backed No | 45c | 672.8$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…ecb4backed Yes | 71c | 671.36$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 57c | 653$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.76 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…a6bebacked No | 7c | 639.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7061…3983backed No | 22c | 628.67$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180f…0c07backed Yes | 72c | 622.03$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.45per pick | 62cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x832d…6ec5backed No | 5c | 599.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 5cpaid | +368.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97b4…2bc0backed No | 20c | 587.98$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3088…2391backed Yes | 51c | 570.13$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 66c | 553.29$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.52 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b14…3e42backed Yes | 72c | 550$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd46…e514backed No | 28c | 525.3$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 44c | 521$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.83 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9126…9e21backed No | 26c | 513.85$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc14…2e9bbacked No | 20c | 512.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44fc…ac29backed Yes | 72c | 500$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.09 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…7b4dbacked Yes | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed No | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 35c | 499.82$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.94 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Yes | 68c | 498.72$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +29%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e8…cc6cbacked Yes | 75c | 498.22$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.87 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edf…03b6backed No | 25c | 496.9$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb83a…2a7ebacked No | 20c | 496.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked No | 19c | 484.03$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.43 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +124%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9926…5d2cbacked No | 31c | 481.88$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 74c | 475.57$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.05 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9c…bc83backed No | 44c | 462.9$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbad…d056backed Yes | 66c | 429.05$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.98 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +1,240.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…4c79backed Yes | 56c | 418.33$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…1762backed Yes | 46c | 412.99$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…5f5abacked Yes | 62c | 403.52$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +18%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc507…5d1ebacked No | 50c | 400.08$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.86 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed No | 35c | 400$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +304.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1231…e221backed No | 39c | 400$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e8…9f32backed No | 33c | 368.08$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa87…aad1backed No | 42c | 357.18$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…a80dbacked Yes | 70c | 354.91$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed Yes | 66c | 349.59$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.88 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…94abbacked No | 46c | 339.18$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +111.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de0…3b28backed No | 32c | 312.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6349…6713backed No | 23c | 311.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe16e…18d4backed Yes | 61c | 300$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cd…2c61backed No | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77d1…6d42backed Yes | 45c | 299.99$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.99 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +91.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 10c | 299.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee69…05d0backed Yes | 70c | 299.98$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.99 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 46cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcec3…e98dbacked Yes | 68c | 298.85$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…1376backed No | 32c | 297.86$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.26 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb948…632dbacked No | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…425bbacked No | 22c | 293.81$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c1…16c0backed Yes | 75c | 281.3$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef86…5afcbacked Yes | 69c | 281$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff1…7234backed No | 11c | 275$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8233…df36backed Yes | 74c | 270.25$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +116.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ae…320fbacked Yes | 70c | 270$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1b…633bbacked Yes | 56c | 260$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…fb45backed No | 18c | 259.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78d7…291dbacked Yes | 47c | 255.99$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x376e…d654backed No | 24c | 251.59$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…a675backed No | 40c | 250.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 25c | 250$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 47c | 250$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.67 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf24c…32f4backed No | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes | 63c | 249.86$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?this page
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 14?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 21?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by December 31?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by February 28?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by January 31?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 15?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 20?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by November 30?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?Yes won
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.