TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$163,647
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$171,452

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $163,647 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 397 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x70ff…b65fbacked No3c9,028$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.282123.8%5 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick14cpaid+164.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No30c7,233$2,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,194.656434.4%22 W · 42 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+100.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No11c5,123$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.4819818.7%37 W · 161 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No33c4,576$1,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,526.9745738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes67c4,296$2,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,410.272552%13 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No53c3,500$1,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,841.6211425.4%29 W · 85 L+0.4wins0.00per pick25cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dfe…0a5ebacked No20c3,277$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.15450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48d5…ec29backed Yes79c3,186$2,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.88540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-48%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3069…f8efbacked Yes64c2,697$1,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$980.464161%25 W · 16 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked No37c2,539$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.591650%8 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4eef…3fcbbacked Yes68c2,419$1,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5001…bc10backed No31c2,320$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes52c2,231$1,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,065.961533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x420e…e3c9backed No34c2,206$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.733145.2%14 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b34…f5a6backed Yes76c2,161$1,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.161758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick46cpaid-2.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x90ee…801bbacked No37c1,773$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.5850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6560…e164backed No35c1,548$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.769040%36 W · 54 L+8.9wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+30.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes50c1,521$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762.1514250%71 W · 71 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+70.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x00c8…9ccdbacked No50c1,514$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.72757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12e2…36b0backed Yes73c1,368$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.771225%3 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-50.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd198…8797backed No40c1,340$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.34540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-39.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2637…26e1backed Yes66c1,264$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x266e…17e5backed Yes76c1,256$959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+30.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No32c1,204$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.094714.9%7 W · 40 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-69.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe50b…32a2backed Yes39c1,164$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.82475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+39.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a7e…1cc7backed No17c1,111$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No41c1,020$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4165644.6%25 W · 31 L-7.2wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-30.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xff72…cdaabacked No37c1,000$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.911631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x027e…c97fbacked No24c960.92$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaae9…d661backed No62c917.48$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.351546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+60.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02d8…0c91backed No25c892.45$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.11250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-36.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No3c800$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22811.2%1 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-81.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e0a…e172backed Yes66c757.12$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.422100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No42c691.07$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.392944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93a6…5daabacked No8c682.01$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8130%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e1…cf05backed No45c672.8$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0785…ecb4backed Yes71c671.36$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.09450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes57c653$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.762035%7 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e44…a6bebacked No7c639.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7061…3983backed No22c628.67$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x180f…0c07backed Yes72c622.03$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.41616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.7wins-0.45per pick62cpaid-76.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x832d…6ec5backed No5c599.97$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick5cpaid+368.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97b4…2bc0backed No20c587.98$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3088…2391backed Yes51c570.13$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.13650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes66c553.29$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.5215047.3%71 W · 79 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b14…3e42backed Yes72c550$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd46…e514backed No28c525.3$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.67250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a2…54c2backed No44c521$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.832729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9126…9e21backed No26c513.85$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc14…2e9bbacked No20c512.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44fc…ac29backed Yes72c500$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.091241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick57cpaid-41.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf27a…7b4dbacked Yes75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb75…f496backed No6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304415.9%7 W · 37 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked No35c499.82$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.942740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Yes68c498.72$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.59475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+29%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x45e8…cc6cbacked Yes75c498.22$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.87580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8edf…03b6backed No25c496.9$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.23450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+110.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb83a…2a7ebacked No20c496.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-27.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e4…471abacked No19c484.03$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.431850%9 W · 9 L+4.3wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+124%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9926…5d2cbacked No31c481.88$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-74%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes74c475.57$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.0514421.5%31 W · 113 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e9c…bc83backed No44c462.9$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbad…d056backed Yes66c429.05$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.98875%6 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+1,240.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6888…4c79backed Yes56c418.33$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f2…1762backed Yes46c412.99$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.62520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-56.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Yes62c403.52$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.69475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+18%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc507…5d1ebacked No50c400.08$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.86933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-45.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb779…ab22backed No35c400$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1413956.4%22 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+304.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1231…e221backed No39c400$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45e8…9f32backed No33c368.08$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa87…aad1backed No42c357.18$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb22a…a80dbacked Yes70c354.91$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.59366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ea…ea62backed Yes66c349.59$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.881275%9 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+39.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2b9d…94abbacked No46c339.18$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.64450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+111.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8de0…3b28backed No32c312.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6349…6713backed No23c311.56$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.46333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed No15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452722.2%6 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe16e…18d4backed Yes61c300$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1181100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22cd…2c61backed No49c300$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77d1…6d42backed Yes45c299.99$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.994100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+91.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed No10c299.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304551.1%23 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee69…05d0backed Yes70c299.98$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.99977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.32per pick46cpaid+72.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcec3…e98dbacked Yes68c298.85$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x426a…1376backed No32c297.86$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.261154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick36cpaid+65.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb948…632dbacked No17c294.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4658…425bbacked No22c293.81$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.26520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-64.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8c1…16c0backed Yes75c281.3$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.34259.5%25 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef86…5afcbacked Yes69c281$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ff1…7234backed No11c275$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8233…df36backed Yes74c270.25$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.25475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick35cpaid+116.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0ae…320fbacked Yes70c270$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a1b…633bbacked Yes56c260$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3e4…fb45backed No18c259.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-64.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x78d7…291dbacked Yes47c255.99$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.862100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x376e…d654backed No24c251.59$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.48250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x765a…a675backed No40c250.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked No25c250$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.55547.3%26 W · 29 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked No47c250$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.673633.3%12 W · 24 L-5.3wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-38.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf24c…32f4backed No20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes63c249.86$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.45425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-60.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.