AI · resolved market
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12cc5581d7654b31006063cc4ae0e6741755e481266663845ab59b8ed60d68cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbbe…f1d5backed No | 55c | 1,880$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8465…6cd7backed Yes | 30c | 1,780$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 29cpaid | +102%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed Yes | 45c | 963$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.35 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9f…c0d4backed Yes | 45c | 917$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.65 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb993…6e3abacked No | 70c | 915$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf8…c7afbacked No | 70c | 865$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43c9…47c1backed No | 59c | 825$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 33cpaid | +117%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed No | 59c | 786$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.26 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +5.6wins | +0.28per pick | 42cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…758bbacked No | 59c | 672$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.52 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed Yes | 41c | 619$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.79 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…e898backed Yes | 41c | 606$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.46 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +123%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbec…8dccbacked Yes | 41c | 419$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.79 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 3c | 415.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…bd84backed Yes | 41c | 367$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.47 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 34cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe71…38d2backed Yes | 41c | 272$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…8919backed No | 59c | 265$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.65 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…8bf6backed Yes | 41c | 265$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +76%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d3…53dcbacked No | 59c | 237$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.17 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed Yes | 41c | 237$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.17 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a8c…28dbbacked No | 74c | 135.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…0e2bbacked Yes | 41c | 102$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed No | 59c | 102$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…e61bbacked No | 59c | 101$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed Yes | 41c | 101$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f34…b449backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x529d…6381backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 14?this page
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 21?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by December 31?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by February 28?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by January 31?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 15?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 20?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by November 30?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?Yes won
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.