TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5d5e…9a5e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
65
Categories scored
22
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: Fed Rates, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Fed Rates at 55 out of 100; worst Middle East at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2026, EST1060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+35.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
49ers vs. Eaglesbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$149.23
Bills vs. Jaguarsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+146.9%+$98.77
Ravens vs. Steelersbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$143.7
Lions vs. Bearsbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+150%+$60
Chiefs vs. Raidersbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$53
Seahawks vs. 49ersbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$44.3
Saints vs. Titansbacked Saints · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+92.3%+$24
Packers vs. Broncosbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+247.8%+$28.48
Ravens vs. Bengalsbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+44.2%+$9.2
Eagles vs. Chargersbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+73.9%+$8.5
All 10 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "UFC" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will "IPO" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+614.3%+$86
Will John Ternus say "Developer" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$121.6
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.89
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$389Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$389.18
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.15
Will Claude be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.37
ChatGPT Full Outage by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$94.4
All 8 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+28.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.42per pick62cpaid-63.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+32.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-34%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 21, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+87.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
College Football — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Oregon (-21.5)backed James Madison · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+78.6%+$8.8
Spread: Texas A&M (-3.5)backed Miami · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+96.1%+$9.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Golf — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+56.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hyperliquid listed on Coinbase in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$67.6
$WIF listed on Coinbase in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST+212.5%+$102
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-36.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jun 19, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devilsbacked Duke Blue Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$51
Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Massachusetts Minutemenbacked Massachusetts Minutemen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$19.4
All 2 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved May 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dell say "xAI" during earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$4,288Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+39.7%+$1,704.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+29.7%+$6.87
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "Fight" during UFC 250?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.21
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be 1+ buzzer beaters during the 2026 Men's NBA Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$199.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Megaquake by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$56
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Dec 16, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Utah vs. Bruinsbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$18.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during Xi events on October 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$361Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$360.85
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.