Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7467c2f96e730af3670779736458fa9eb62889133573f9830af28e9eca11da5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 26c | 7,928$2,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,048.57 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7e…23ebbacked No | 74c | 5,000$3,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,315 | 23 | 91.3%21 W · 2 L | +5.0wins | +0.22per pick | 69cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8666…d7c7backed No | 74c | 2,000$1,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…230abacked Yes | 6c | 1,653$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.66 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0579…1993backed No | 76c | 1,500$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38b6…a5e9backed Yes | 5c | 1,111$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcdc…ab84backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -7.4wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 9c | 859.35$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.62 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 6c | 856.89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +155.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b04…38b2backed Yes | 10c | 721.82$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40da…2fe1backed Yes | 24c | 714.14$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.19 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd09…9c71backed No | 76c | 659$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.18 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…5b97backed No | 76c | 656.01$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.01 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49b8…23a9backed Yes | 4c | 568.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 77c | 566.83$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe3…305dbacked Yes | 9c | 520.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133e…5a5ebacked Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…b7e3backed No | 77c | 392$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.73 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 72cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x941e…9775backed Yes | 23c | 385.29$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.95 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -5.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbf…5d35backed Yes | 6c | 354.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 4c | 323$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 66 | 0%0 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 308.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…f112backed No | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.7 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 4c | 299.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa062…3a06backed Yes | 19c | 263.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 241.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 149 | 9.4%14 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 15c | 214.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 89 | 19.1%17 W · 72 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 6c | 205.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 19c | 203.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed Yes | 9c | 200.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc01…d914backed Yes | 15c | 190.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3032…99e7backed No | 67c | 148.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.93 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 84 | 70.2%59 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…9a5ebacked Yes | 30c | 81.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a7…4972backed No | 75c | 49.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda6…3f07backed No | 77c | 37.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d28…87b5backed No | 67c | 37.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc603…3220backed No | 78c | 23.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 55c | 18.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab20…d9e2backed No | 70c | 16.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6735…f5b7backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x232d…5764backed No | 74c | 13.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in March?this page
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in March?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in March?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in March?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in March?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $36 in March?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $40 in March?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.