Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0d5dfd890efcaa7d2db3145564a98a286c87ef7e5b020b220c57d2432b9a092
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4543…93e2backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…5661backed Yes | 5c | 2,150$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 3c | 2,110$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.61 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,776$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…49b8backed Yes | 5c | 1,567$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 9c | 1,459$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.8 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +155.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x751a…9ea1backed Yes | 55c | 1,000$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.75 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 845.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 48 | 2.1%1 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -93.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01a…e60abacked Yes | 9c | 748$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.92 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda6…3f07backed No | 42c | 720$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.5 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x505e…affcbacked Yes | 3c | 680$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -6.5wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9c…97a4backed Yes | 5c | 494.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -93%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 456.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c64…12ffbacked Yes | 6c | 400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9561…0570backed Yes | 3c | 328.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 315$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 149 | 9.4%14 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0093…be88backed No | 70c | 308.91$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 17c | 277.07$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed Yes | 15c | 258.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 84 | 70.2%59 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd282…a206backed No | 57c | 123.74$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 94 | 27.7%26 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f13…ca9abacked No | 79c | 89.68$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7498…03b7backed Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae9d…abe7backed No | 59c | 60.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a89…c71bbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7dd…ff1bbacked No | 60c | 32.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e7…5d77backed Yes | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7a…8520backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85fd…4d74backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…f20ebacked No | 80c | 18.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 69cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in March?this page
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in March?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in March?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in March?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $36 in March?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $40 in March?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in March?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.