Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf185342f17ddefe1be58fff6d70818d640c6323ed655c2976e03f398d1074aae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $123,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $143,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 4,216$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…7b54backed Yes | 12c | 3,210$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 28cpaid | +211.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd86d…2957backed Yes | 3c | 3,185$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b03…a61dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,960$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b65…ce09backed Yes | 21c | 2,760$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd9…78d7backed No | 79c | 2,760$2,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,618$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.55 | 48 | 2.1%1 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -93.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45f1…5682backed Yes | 21c | 2,400$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066e…07c4backed No | 79c | 2,400$1,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcccd…66e5backed Yes | 2c | 1,700$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a6…0a30backed Yes | 1c | 1,697$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 6c | 1,678$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.49 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +155.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a28…ea7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,670$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…0ebcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,645$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae64…879fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,602$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ae…2b01backed Yes | 2c | 1,579$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc3…edf0backed Yes | 22c | 1,527$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.73 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…4c60backed No | 77c | 1,300$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 69cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,291$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…0933backed Yes | 1c | 1,281$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,023$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 137 | 3.6%5 W · 132 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x751a…9ea1backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.88 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 922.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7752…50b8backed Yes | 2c | 813.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b04…aca6backed Yes | 6c | 670.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…c464backed No | 77c | 650$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.5 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 23c | 639.13$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 3c | 420.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20e6…5022backed No | 80c | 419.5$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc68…d269backed No | 80c | 412.45$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f9…47f9backed No | 80c | 412.27$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1945…1afabacked No | 80c | 411.5$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ca…b537backed No | 79c | 411.44$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9561…0570backed Yes | 3c | 369.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…3463backed No | 80c | 336.24$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 332.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 287.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 149 | 9.4%14 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes | 9c | 213.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +129.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85fd…4d74backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd8…d09ebacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9a…04f9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b13…0440backed Yes | 17c | 89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…8bbabacked No | 77c | 50.63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…7018backed Yes | 23c | 48.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in March?this page
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in March?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in March?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in March?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $36 in March?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $40 in March?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in March?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.