Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1de39250613609a4b0bb415148b0e7173f641de9aa9bfa7a5ab324a6c339c2ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $138,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $203,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $138,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7752…50b8backed Yes | 1c | 3,062$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 2,100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…f9b1backed Yes | 1c | 1,722$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d71…4408backed Yes | 1c | 1,605$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8384…01cabacked Yes | 1c | 1,266$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 1c | 1,249$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +155.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x751a…9ea1backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc3…edf0backed Yes | 14c | 964$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.99 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes | 3c | 683.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +129.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a8…8466backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +63%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…3ffebacked Yes | 7c | 399.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7796…5da7backed Yes | 4c | 366.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9a…04f9backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69c3…8a32backed Yes | 10c | 211.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in March?this page
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in March?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in March?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in March?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $36 in March?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $40 in March?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in March?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.