Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Hyperliquid reach $40 in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c34ccd580a38bc8fccdf905e7e4e8e5e6ad9959fbaac2d09c97ac5789c454fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,275 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 56c | 6,520$3,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,889.75 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc903…b175backed No | 46c | 4,000$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,839.99 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…fdb3backed No | 42c | 2,500$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc01…d914backed Yes | 59c | 1,161$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.3 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…e455backed Yes | 53c | 858.33$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 39c | 822.95$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.79 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +155.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4b…541bbacked No | 26c | 468.39$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.78 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked No | 42c | 399.98$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.99 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed No | 18c | 328.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…4f62backed Yes | 75c | 268.38$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff16…7511backed Yes | 52c | 259.99$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.6 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 49c | 239.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc492…248cbacked Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed No | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b2…2171backed No | 42c | 199.63$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba0…cba6backed Yes | 60c | 133.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.08 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 31c | 133$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f89…00e5backed No | 27c | 128.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 9c | 126.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 149 | 9.4%14 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c38…a15abacked Yes | 74c | 123.45$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda6…3f07backed No | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…8748backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 71 | 12.7%9 W · 62 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x837e…27dfbacked Yes | 64c | 78.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a6…8e49backed No | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 32c | 61.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5198…2616backed Yes | 59c | 56.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd210…92dfbacked No | 41c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f13…ca9abacked Yes | 47c | 53.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…0037backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a17…8df6backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5d…bf4dbacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 45c | 44.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 136 | 24.3%33 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 59c | 35.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 54c | 33.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45bc…1f69backed Yes | 44c | 33.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7a…8520backed No | 53c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 43c | 29.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 55c | 27.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7936…1e6cbacked Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 55c | 19.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hyperliquid reach $40 in March?this page
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in March?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in March?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in March?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in March?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $36 in March?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in March?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.