Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 2, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a8d60e491a6b5a48412e4ca2328aa006fee6aab4cea38ebf5d9b18e1ddab82e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $184,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $165,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $184,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 0c | 72,194$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.13 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89cd…4d7dbacked Yes | 0c | 38,611$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.65 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf9…2798backed Yes | 1c | 30,162$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 5c | 8,294$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.17 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,875$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,870$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.11 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 7c | 2,196$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.87 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 5c | 2,182$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.62 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 6c | 1,482$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.83 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9995…d0d3backed Yes | 8c | 547.03$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e90…6783backed Yes | 14c | 432.6$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +345.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 299.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 13c | 267.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +214.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 7c | 246.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5b…afe2backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 199.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8960…883bbacked Yes | 13c | 156.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 127.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 66c | 120.1$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…9a5ebacked No | 63c | 117.5$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed Yes | 11c | 111.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 19c | 105$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.45 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 103.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f46…aa5cbacked No | 66c | 30.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 2, 2026?this page
- Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.