Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7ddbcf3f56543a8fa36cad800d0390d1e423f0cc049cdb5a14592eabe87f3c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $993,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,093,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $993,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 0c | 625,569$1,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,688.82 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 0c | 52,621$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.46 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 3c | 22,252$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 2c | 15,000$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.32 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -96.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 3c | 7,497$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.91 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 25c | 4,140$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.14 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…3ee3backed Yes | 12c | 2,953$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 13c | 2,250$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 10c | 2,221$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.3 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe639…082abacked Yes | 1c | 2,133$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,750$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…4c4cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,551$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,298$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,271$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda2e…6c83backed Yes | 17c | 914.66$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 889.94$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.27 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 16c | 757.43$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.86 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfa…fea1backed Yes | 10c | 739.9$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +137.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 8c | 567.34$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…c8eebacked Yes | 10c | 541.66$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 3c | 516.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 20c | 502.78$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 3c | 487$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…bb28backed Yes | 3c | 466.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 453.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 429.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 72 | 2.8%2 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c37…268abacked Yes | 12c | 424.64$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed No | 76c | 402.01$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.62 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 71c | 400$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…65d5backed Yes | 5c | 350.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 13c | 250$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 8c | 236.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 5c | 221.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 7c | 207.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes | 10c | 200.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ac…2fc1backed Yes | 11c | 137.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 31c | 130$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2455…a70fbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05eb…9d6cbacked No | 69c | 120.42$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86f7…f459backed Yes | 11c | 90$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a10…9977backed Yes | 19c | 68.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 60.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…d512backed No | 78c | 48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 22c | 45.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 80c | 39.04$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x048e…7e9cbacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 75c | 26.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20a3…29dbbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 73c | 15.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 71c | 14.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 75c | 14.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 18, 2026?this page
- Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.