Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fa4e985401716bd0464f7aa294b7cc74f21a45ada069899df534e03c4a36086
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $201,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $188,047
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $201,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd26…d137backed No | 0c | 24,501$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…50e9backed No | 15c | 23,965$3,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,660.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b10…2f7ebacked No | 1c | 11,429$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ae…e386backed No | 15c | 8,495$1,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,267.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…0617backed No | 18c | 8,069$1,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,471.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc241…1487backed No | 20c | 7,336$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,479.95 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc680…e94cbacked No | 15c | 7,070$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.03 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…ae74backed Yes | 71c | 5,807$4,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,711.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 70c | 5,559$3,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,645.48 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 77c | 5,465$4,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,261.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34e6…cd63backed No | 16c | 5,088$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad9…7bf6backed No | 24c | 4,527$1,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,107.78 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd6…84cdbacked No | 18c | 3,960$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb6…8874backed No | 16c | 3,067$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 13c | 2,460$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1baa…6eb3backed No | 7c | 2,375$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 23c | 2,270$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.01 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67ea…ae12backed No | 40c | 2,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f9…e09dbacked No | 22c | 1,984$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 71c | 1,933$1,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 10c | 1,600$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…1d80backed Yes | 70c | 1,500$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a3…29dbbacked No | 19c | 1,408$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.47 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 69c | 1,200$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed No | 26c | 1,144$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.98 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -69%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked No | 20c | 840.59$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f7…4899backed No | 48c | 790$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…a42dbacked No | 20c | 722.36$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x991b…f19abacked No | 20c | 718.14$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.33 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cc…72afbacked No | 15c | 707.21$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed No | 21c | 705.16$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44e6…9d9ebacked No | 25c | 642.2$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77e9…2c06backed No | 17c | 616.83$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…0a41backed No | 17c | 607.39$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd64e…5516backed Yes | 69c | 592.36$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed No | 16c | 574.93$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd1…cfb4backed No | 19c | 530$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…6a86backed No | 30c | 500.2$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.87 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -62%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 31c | 500$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.33 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3139…0445backed No | 20c | 485.17$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 36c | 482.66$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7659…73acbacked No | 16c | 470$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf50e…e8edbacked No | 28c | 451.03$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c1…8a5dbacked No | 25c | 436$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed No | 48c | 420$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed No | 20c | 400.22$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed No | 15c | 400$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.01 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 30c | 400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 31c | 367.56$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 69c | 350$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -5.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 13c | 350$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 18c | 341.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 25c | 340.27$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.83 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 78c | 329$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.65 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 12c | 310$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 82 | 0%0 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked No | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090f…31acbacked No | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9634…bd44backed No | 14c | 262.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a8…c016backed No | 19c | 258.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…9ac0backed No | 18c | 255.83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x769d…05bfbacked No | 16c | 254.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2475…0c27backed No | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05eb…9d6cbacked No | 19c | 211.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd603…0f08backed No | 16c | 206$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed No | 16c | 201$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeab…4997backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b26…cf9abacked Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9672backed No | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 76c | 198$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.92 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 26c | 189.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 16c | 180$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…44e3backed Yes | 74c | 178.15$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd05…730dbacked No | 29c | 175.9$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x165a…9148backed No | 16c | 173.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 21c | 172.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…b395backed Yes | 70c | 170.16$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 24c | 168.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8371…b373backed Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…d155backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 8c | 166.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88f3…baa8backed No | 28c | 146.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb8…f2abbacked No | 44c | 142.29$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…5c56backed No | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 33c | 132.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbff…e8e7backed No | 38c | 131.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 23c | 129.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…6fb0backed Yes | 54c | 128.58$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…5775backed Yes | 59c | 120$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92a9…1929backed No | 20c | 119.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…65d5backed No | 12c | 119$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…ea6fbacked No | 19c | 113.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee32…463abacked No | 16c | 112.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5691…c593backed No | 17c | 111.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed No | 26c | 109.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -67%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd3…65bebacked No | 17c | 107.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd5…db6ebacked No | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…a55fbacked No | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026?this page
- Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 6, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.