Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d52a1ad771507479cb17d8748705f5d0556796669fd7dec42e6766400a8f445
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $391,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $382,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $391,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 416 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 23c | 33,706$7,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,788.61 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…50e9backed No | 73c | 30,739$22,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,325.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671b…9a07backed No | 80c | 27,435$21,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,591.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 15c | 16,072$2,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,490.61 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -96.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 40c | 14,661$5,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,814.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 15c | 13,357$2,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,044.6 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 7c | 11,560$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.14 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -69%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 1c | 11,500$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 39c | 9,931$3,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,827.19 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 24c | 9,859$2,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,382.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 63c | 9,513$6,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,509.99 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 35c | 8,805$3,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,068.22 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked Yes | 36c | 7,318$2,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,633.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…e1d7backed Yes | 28c | 6,850$1,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,910.36 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66f0…1229backed Yes | 31c | 6,413$1,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,973.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 38c | 6,360$2,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,931.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fc…44dfbacked No | 74c | 5,992$4,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,555.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed Yes | 40c | 5,777$2,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,282.07 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8d…dfccbacked Yes | 80c | 5,563$4,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,449.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd64e…5516backed Yes | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 25c | 4,285$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.87 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…0617backed No | 27c | 3,663$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,672.14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 47c | 3,512$1,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,655.25 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 61c | 3,463$2,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,367.68 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 78c | 3,100$2,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.16 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed No | 66c | 2,887$1,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…6fdcbacked No | 61c | 2,325$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab4…0f1fbacked No | 80c | 2,300$1,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…e964backed No | 54c | 2,272$1,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked No | 34c | 2,000$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,312 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71a4…cd31backed Yes | 40c | 2,000$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35a…e615backed Yes | 10c | 2,000$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked No | 77c | 1,960$1,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ae…e386backed No | 38c | 1,833$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x384a…4b79backed No | 70c | 1,810$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed No | 28c | 1,703$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,218.51 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,582$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed Yes | 79c | 1,570$1,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,243.19 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 35c | 1,570$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.06 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0778…1276backed Yes | 34c | 1,504$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.53 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa659…1eaabacked No | 74c | 1,500$1,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,411$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd6…84cdbacked No | 67c | 1,344$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe049…8df4backed No | 40c | 1,342$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb6…8874backed No | 36c | 1,342$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad9…7bf6backed No | 7c | 1,297$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200.48 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 22c | 1,270$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed Yes | 37c | 1,250$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 10c | 1,247$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.79 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 16cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 52c | 1,230$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.36 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 43c | 1,189$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea47…5728backed No | 30c | 1,166$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 22c | 1,163$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.43 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 56c | 1,037$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.78 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 41c | 1,000$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…bf33backed Yes | 64c | 1,000$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 25c | 999.98$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d28…7ee5backed No | 15c | 979$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +571.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc850…71e6backed No | 75c | 953$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce8…4527backed Yes | 38c | 948.82$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9964…0e17backed No | 15c | 931$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +571.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd814…7f65backed No | 73c | 924$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe299…34cdbacked No | 49c | 884$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked No | 23c | 874.71$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.29 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac11…9d3abacked No | 32c | 835.55$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 27c | 829.79$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +366%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1537…e720backed Yes | 12c | 819$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes | 66c | 812.97$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.32 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd07c…26fdbacked No | 63c | 788.8$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 67c | 784.85$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.9 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked No | 22c | 780.75$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeab…4997backed No | 6c | 778$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.35 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4bb…7462backed No | 15c | 763$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +571.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 53c | 752.29$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.34 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07b0…9a0fbacked No | 15c | 738$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +571.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 17c | 730.7$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46dd…fd2abacked No | 15c | 726$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +571.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed No | 73c | 720$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 38c | 711.75$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.98 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 704.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb15b…5215backed Yes | 63c | 687.5$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.13 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked No | 9c | 684.97$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.01 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 5c | 680.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398b…be1fbacked No | 74c | 676.97$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e3…22c8backed No | 15c | 671$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +571.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85a3…6216backed Yes | 75c | 667.7$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae2b…b3b0backed No | 15c | 657$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +588.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 650.29$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.08 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 37c | 633$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.57 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 580.72$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.62 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35b2…8abdbacked No | 74c | 579.94$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d3…9af1backed Yes | 33c | 566.19$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b0…000dbacked Yes | 21c | 565.28$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.88 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 45c | 545.74$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.09 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…f433backed No | 50c | 537.69$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe848…282ebacked No | 68c | 520$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f9…e09dbacked No | 14c | 510.57$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 39c | 500$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed No | 38c | 500$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.68 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 75c | 500$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.54 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?this page
- Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.