AI · resolved market
ChatGPT Full Outage by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x953825942be626ebe2c1d5cc9100486398748837c02393dc9d342233af63cd78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,176
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,176 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d5e…9a5ebacked No | 9c | 1,100$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…5790backed Yes | 5c | 838.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.65 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +191%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 20c | 808$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.98 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed Yes | 66c | 783.76$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.62 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 15c | 602.2$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.62 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 7c | 593.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.42 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 20c | 461.46$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.22 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 11c | 439.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 393.86$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.78 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…87f9backed No | 17c | 355$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfa…f779backed Yes | 79c | 353.01$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.11 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 9c | 161$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d5…a3b9backed Yes | 6c | 156.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,462.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd27b…3966backed No | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 47c | 140$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed No | 35c | 112$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 14c | 100.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 71c | 56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…b847backed Yes | 74c | 18.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.