Fed Rates · resolved market
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x634ac8f30b4aac7e4be6c968097e4c4708f047e6641d005d3a0948c45f0912d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $524,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $500,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $524,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 485 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a8a…7699backed Yes | 77c | 18,374$14,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,307.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 67c | 13,025$8,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,340.45 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb521…18f6backed No | 0c | 11,746$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcf…03a0backed No | 55c | 9,713$5,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,316.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 3c | 9,399$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.98 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 9c | 9,008$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked No | 21c | 8,173$1,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,712.25 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7de7…a9c8backed No | 48c | 8,049$3,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,874.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe526…a19dbacked No | 8c | 7,573$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 49c | 7,317$3,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,739.7 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 4c | 6,735$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 30c | 6,036$1,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,810.8 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +211.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 3c | 6,031$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 24c | 5,737$1,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,356.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 20c | 5,617$1,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.93 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb50…8cbabacked No | 18c | 5,400$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0037…be55backed No | 19c | 5,321$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…2e3fbacked No | 7c | 5,272$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d0…b48dbacked No | 16c | 5,223$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07f…3c41backed Yes | 52c | 5,111$2,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,454.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc639…c5a2backed No | 18c | 5,067$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.01 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…e1d7backed No | 14c | 5,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 62c | 4,654$2,869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,784.88 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed No | 53c | 4,175$2,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,199.06 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed No | 26c | 4,132$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.69 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6302…7917backed Yes | 43c | 4,000$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed No | 18c | 3,957$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.49 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 80c | 3,956$3,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.17 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6c…61b4backed No | 4c | 3,916$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf95b…14ecbacked No | 6c | 3,709$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed No | 18c | 3,692$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.71 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked No | 18c | 3,660$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.36 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 16c | 3,646$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f00…a14bbacked No | 24c | 3,643$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 5c | 3,632$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.96 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked No | 51c | 3,000$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,519.99 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 47c | 2,858$1,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,524.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 13c | 2,808$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.23 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 42c | 2,751$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154.49 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc302…ae3cbacked No | 0c | 2,720$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d9…5490backed Yes | 40c | 2,587$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,559.13 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b6…3a92backed No | 2c | 2,578$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 14c | 2,548$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.3 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 24c | 2,092$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…c0aebacked No | 2c | 2,057$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed No | 22c | 2,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.59 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5973…5e13backed Yes | 50c | 1,999$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +168.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No | 35c | 1,930$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.99 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 5c | 1,926$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.8 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +366%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ee…a64cbacked No | 6c | 1,904$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked No | 46c | 1,848$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.47 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed No | 29c | 1,679$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.49 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…81eabacked No | 18c | 1,647$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7e…396bbacked Yes | 34c | 1,636$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 7c | 1,583$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.84 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 5c | 1,557$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.79 | 72 | 2.8%2 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00be…5acabacked No | 50c | 1,530$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dde…94c3backed Yes | 75c | 1,510$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc828…dbfabacked No | 3c | 1,500$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d74…3163backed No | 45c | 1,496$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 65c | 1,475$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.93 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 48c | 1,420$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.01 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a3…01f8backed Yes | 72c | 1,390$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc3…c87bbacked No | 73c | 1,364$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a6…765ebacked No | 15c | 1,361$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 4c | 1,352$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba4…09c0backed Yes | 56c | 1,325$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…4314backed No | 8c | 1,248$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 13c | 1,248$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…c539backed No | 7c | 1,226$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 22c | 1,209$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.8 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb2…2bbcbacked No | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked No | 1c | 1,200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 36c | 1,167$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.39 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 52c | 1,154$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.85 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed No | 31c | 1,127$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No | 25c | 1,091$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 58c | 1,088$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.64 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 72c | 1,067$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.82 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked No | 8c | 1,050$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -89.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…d013backed No | 48c | 1,032$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed Yes | 80c | 1,023$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.58 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 22c | 1,021$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…5c56backed No | 20c | 1,007$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.99 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked No | 4c | 1,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…30a4backed Yes | 27c | 999.99$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…74cfbacked No | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…6d52backed No | 7c | 999.96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…c18bbacked No | 62c | 987.16$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…7865backed No | 37c | 972.99$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.86 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2461…f240backed Yes | 42c | 963.73$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +136.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 32c | 954.16$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.67 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked No | 8c | 953$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.63 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9d…ada7backed No | 20c | 946.79$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…eb1ebacked Yes | 44c | 914.35$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.4 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb86…1dc5backed Yes | 38c | 877.98$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f4…dd7cbacked Yes | 49c | 839$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0677…2a28backed No | 6c | 833.74$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…d030backed Yes | 48c | 833.3$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?this page
- Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30?Yes won
- Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.