Fed Rates · resolved market
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5360f524a00e2d02089ad82fe32061742c2df6ad282d44d6f91b96f23c18af7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $782,595
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $617,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $782,595 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 300 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc0ec…f78dbacked Yes | 54c | 86,036$46,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,510.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdc…cc11backed No | 46c | 86,036$39,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,510.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ca…edb7backed Yes | 1c | 78,655$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes | 0c | 41,454$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03db…acdbbacked Yes | 0c | 27,686$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 26,596$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.31 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…376fbacked Yes | 3c | 19,755$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…6233backed Yes | 3c | 16,954$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5973…5e13backed Yes | 5c | 15,749$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +168.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 1c | 10,964$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.3 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…c577backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 42c | 9,473$3,987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,987.33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 3c | 9,313$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.02 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8a…7699backed Yes | 38c | 9,250$3,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,494.62 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bf…2032backed No | 78c | 7,743$6,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,741.26 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…0dfdbacked Yes | 0c | 7,612$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb698…976abacked Yes | 4c | 6,005$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea3…adbbbacked Yes | 1c | 4,662$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb123…e6f2backed Yes | 48c | 4,654$2,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,243.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 13c | 4,590$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.2 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 52c | 4,558$2,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,187.81 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 57c | 4,000$2,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,726.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 4c | 3,957$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.58 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -91.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,849$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 18cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x107a…b962backed Yes | 3c | 3,761$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadec…3c7bbacked Yes | 5c | 3,538$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 2,982$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.03 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,916$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.1 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 2c | 2,897$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.27 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…6a86backed Yes | 36c | 2,884$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -62%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab12…3683backed Yes | 2c | 2,737$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…b017backed Yes | 1c | 2,725$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 9c | 2,660$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 6c | 2,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 42c | 2,444$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.18 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 11c | 2,200$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked No | 59c | 2,162$1,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.77 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed Yes | 24c | 2,156$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked No | 63c | 2,137$1,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,111$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.81 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 2,098$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.69 | 72 | 2.8%2 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec18…0720backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked No | 75c | 1,965$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.45 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e0…7387backed Yes | 6c | 1,951$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebfe…28c7backed No | 56c | 1,870$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93d4…7345backed No | 63c | 1,808$1,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 2c | 1,689$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked No | 47c | 1,632$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.05 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa62c…e626backed Yes | 1c | 1,623$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 57c | 1,600$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 18c | 1,569$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.23 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 19c | 1,550$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,547$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 8c | 1,528$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.42 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 19c | 1,506$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,466$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 44c | 1,365$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.39 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 1,353$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 1c | 1,347$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,343$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba4…09c0backed Yes | 13c | 1,285$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 61c | 1,255$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.5 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…79c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 50c | 1,168$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.67 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 8c | 1,132$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.89 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf81c…4540backed Yes | 12c | 1,075$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9974…2840backed Yes | 56c | 1,054$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,023$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -77%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,010$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x421f…37dabacked Yes | 5c | 1,002$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc26…7e7dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c40…3d64backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 59c | 899.73$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.76 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…7865backed Yes | 34c | 865.95$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.39 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 2c | 850$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -93.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 39c | 841.22$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.1 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b13…67debacked Yes | 1c | 829.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0539…70f9backed Yes | 54c | 829.04$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.39 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4da0…ef3cbacked Yes | 2c | 824$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 42c | 810$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d1…a379backed No | 45c | 775.24$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d00…b0c2backed Yes | 3c | 764.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed No | 65c | 738.63$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.86 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…60c2backed Yes | 3c | 718.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 72c | 716.77$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.75 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 61c | 715$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.16 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 23c | 700.1$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.38 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 41c | 700$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 2c | 667.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c35…afa8backed Yes | 43c | 655.66$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 2c | 645.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccf6…62a5backed Yes | 53c | 616.83$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 2c | 608.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…db7abacked Yes | 50c | 605.5$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f79…01b9backed No | 66c | 602.8$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b91…982dbacked Yes | 2c | 600$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 46c | 600$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.18 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 63c | 600$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?this page
- Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30?Yes won
- Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.