TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in April?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,084
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,438

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,084 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1464…8748backed Yes15c526.56$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.777112.7%9 W · 62 L-6.4wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-50.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed No66c317.68$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.68425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-67.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a2c…95babacked Yes68c300.48$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b06…0b42backed Yes32c287$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.932231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x665c…e2b9backed Yes70c231.24$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.36366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x941e…9775backed Yes73c201.2$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.92825%7 W · 21 L-5.5wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-46.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa3e9…63d0backed Yes65c199.41$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.834100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb10a…ab03backed No40c99.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94df…2dcebacked Yes63c87.43$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9d6…3ae3backed Yes47c87.11$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.48922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick46cpaid-61%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd104…7c02backed No37c86.32$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.822650%13 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d5e…9a5ebacked Yes60c81.73$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.69366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+32.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4689…1926backed Yes22c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+79.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd86c…98aabacked No78c48.42$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.764667.4%31 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9eb3…564fbacked Yes42c43.74$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.41666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+29.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff16…7511backed Yes75c38.13$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.534953.1%26 W · 23 L+5.7wins+0.12per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.