Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedf1112faf2f8acf72e9480ac96f582f15c6d6fa7dc793771eaf179f233dab09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1464…8748backed Yes | 15c | 526.56$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.77 | 71 | 12.7%9 W · 62 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 66c | 317.68$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2c…95babacked Yes | 68c | 300.48$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 32c | 287$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.93 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x665c…e2b9backed Yes | 70c | 231.24$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x941e…9775backed Yes | 73c | 201.2$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -5.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed Yes | 65c | 199.41$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.83 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb10a…ab03backed No | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94df…2dcebacked Yes | 63c | 87.43$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d6…3ae3backed Yes | 47c | 87.11$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.48 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -61%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed No | 37c | 86.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…9a5ebacked Yes | 60c | 81.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4689…1926backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd86c…98aabacked No | 78c | 48.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb3…564fbacked Yes | 42c | 43.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff16…7511backed Yes | 75c | 38.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in April?this page
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in April?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in April?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in April?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in April?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $36 in April?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $40 in April?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in April?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in April?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.