Weather · resolved market
Megaquake by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63bd6b51d2fd4ddb1a1b9e5a29fd949e52907b0d2dd58dfaa399ce1e9d2939b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 19c | 10,556$2,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040.93 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 27c | 6,325$1,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,704.58 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 28cpaid | +282.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20e6…95c4backed Yes | 17c | 4,560$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.16 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 73c | 3,639$2,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.62 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…672abacked No | 71c | 3,264$2,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.69 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff4d…d356backed Yes | 11c | 3,112$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 2,169$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5745…aa5ebacked Yes | 9c | 2,102$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3559…4d76backed Yes | 35c | 1,838$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 20c | 1,642$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.91 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 17c | 1,401$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.2 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +98%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Yes | 1c | 1,350$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 22c | 1,126$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.89 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcb…e811backed No | 79c | 1,046$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 19c | 967.09$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.75 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 23c | 907.56$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.58 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66d6…50c7backed Yes | 22c | 884.08$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 19c | 826.86$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 4c | 748.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 6c | 720.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 35c | 681.47$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.2 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5146…ac5ebacked Yes | 4c | 677.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb731…5797backed Yes | 44c | 631.47$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 79c | 617$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.06 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 21c | 606$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.26 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 3c | 590.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 69c | 581.58$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.42 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 27c | 576.44$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.2 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…883dbacked No | 63c | 536.51$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed Yes | 15c | 477.22$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.3 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked No | 65c | 400.37$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.21 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x529f…ffd4backed Yes | 4c | 400.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x196d…9688backed Yes | 51c | 392.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 379.2$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.36 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc9…63b2backed No | 66c | 365.42$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.42 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cb…6e8fbacked No | 61c | 327.42$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 21c | 310.49$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff36…d5b7backed Yes | 25c | 303.41$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.69 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed No | 62c | 300$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…a3bcbacked No | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60f7…050bbacked No | 62c | 299.98$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 23c | 296.51$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.44 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x713c…a014backed Yes | 24c | 289.85$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bf…eca3backed No | 73c | 273.04$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…9a5ebacked Yes | 22c | 250$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 38c | 246.27$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.09 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 4c | 234.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.23per pick | 33cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 20c | 234$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x464f…8947backed Yes | 8c | 222$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 29c | 219.58$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 11c | 216.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed No | 64c | 210$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.1 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -6.6wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 205.75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.83 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked No | 78c | 202.13$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…9d5cbacked Yes | 30c | 200.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…6b3dbacked Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2811…6818backed Yes | 9c | 196.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaae…8ad2backed Yes | 26c | 190.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 71c | 190$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe453…b05dbacked Yes | 26c | 190$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 73c | 189.01$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.35 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 79c | 189$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.57 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…644bbacked Yes | 23c | 185$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 65c | 179.82$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.94 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e53…254cbacked Yes | 27c | 149.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 79c | 147.98$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 28c | 143.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a2…c1b9backed Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 24c | 134.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4f…0f33backed No | 64c | 124.13$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 15c | 120.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8deb…d435backed No | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…7f90backed Yes | 22c | 115.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ea…d45fbacked Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…3917backed Yes | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9060…790bbacked Yes | 64c | 108.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.24 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbb…1e8abacked Yes | 27c | 107.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x569b…1598backed Yes | 32c | 107.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f9f…36e1backed Yes | 21c | 104.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 19c | 102.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7593…e677backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +156.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71a…1bb6backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…cb07backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +137.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb02…05d7backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7a…6c9abacked Yes | 31c | 97.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x296b…a965backed No | 62c | 96.6$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 30c | 96.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd395…3731backed No | 61c | 90$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 15c | 86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…74dcbacked No | 62c | 82.31$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb84…5685backed Yes | 15c | 79.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 22c | 78.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.