TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd325…a3bc

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
52
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 53 out of 100; worst Crypto Milestones at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-35.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Squid FDV above $50M one day after launchbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$16.21
Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.75
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$395Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$105
Over $50M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+51.3%+$57.11
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$191.8
Linea airdrop in Q2 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+39.9%+$53.13
Pump.fun airdrop in Q2 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$99.49
zkSync airdrop by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2024, EDT-100%-$176.86
Aleo airdrop by April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$67.76
All 11 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+53.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+21.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2025, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-57.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-66%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 15, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+38.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dodgers vs. Brewersbacked Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,008Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,008
Cubs vs. Brewersbacked Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,598Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$1,307.81
Yankees vs. Blue Jaysbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$624Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+134.4%+$839.03
All 3 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+188.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$515Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+188.9%+$973.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Oct 13, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lions vs. Chiefsbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,285Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$1,051.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Oct 9, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Missouri State vs. Middle Tennesseebacked Missouri State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,560Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT+81.7%+$1,275
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Megaquake by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$105
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Aug 11, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2024, EDT+29.7%+$45.55
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the ECB announce no change at the February 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$23
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$393Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$393.38
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.51
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Oct 5, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Procházka vs. Rountree Jr.backed Rountree Jr. · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$180
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.