TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Cubs vs. Brewers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Brewersof Cubs, Brewers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,221,107
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,292,161

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,221,107 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,027 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf29b…dd4cbacked Cubs46c1,219,682$561,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561,506.5538043.4%165 W · 215 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaefe…1e4abacked Brewers55c550,357$303,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247,249.442462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b1d…74ccbacked Cubs45c400,000$180,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180,0009440.4%38 W · 56 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Brewers55c346,423$190,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155,449.564965.3%32 W · 17 L+7.0wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+28%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Brewers52c288,412$149,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138,437.681,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4991…5ecdbacked Cubs40c273,347$110,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110,424.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc8f…a7bbbacked Brewers56c161,801$90,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71,192.231855.6%10 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick68cpaid-17%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0549…c052backed Brewers55c159,771$87,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71,896.767651.3%39 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Brewers54c117,382$63,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,911.181,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Cubs44c100,000$44,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,999.999462.8%59 W · 35 L+11.0wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Brewers55c90,000$49,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,50038751.9%201 W · 186 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Brewers62c78,730$49,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,690.246653%35 W · 31 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Brewers71c71,350$50,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,997.6646239.6%183 W · 279 L-17.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3672…edbdbacked Cubs51c48,554$24,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,8209146.2%42 W · 49 L-11.7wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-25.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Brewers61c45,923$28,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,914.8315353.6%82 W · 71 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Brewers55c40,869$22,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,390.9148254.4%262 W · 220 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Cubs46c33,516$15,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,376.441,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Brewers57c30,824$17,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,380.822441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Brewers55c28,736$15,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,909.5463152.6%332 W · 299 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Brewers67c27,531$18,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,112.4796133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Cubs48c25,221$12,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,159.741,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Brewers55c25,000$13,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,249.997363%46 W · 27 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Brewers55c22,815$12,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,321.931,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Cubs43c20,017$8,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,620.2844749.2%220 W · 227 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Brewers55c20,000$11,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,0006855.9%38 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdefe…5432backed Brewers55c16,650$9,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,425.913065.4%85 W · 45 L+7.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Cubs45c15,000$6,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,699.9571751%366 W · 351 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Brewers55c12,675$6,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,682.7578445.3%355 W · 429 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b0b…5e43backed Cubs45c12,000$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,399.98520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-63.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2745…17b3backed Cubs46c11,423$5,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,254.531741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Brewers30c11,076$3,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,751.2717136.8%63 W · 108 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Brewers65c10,235$6,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,586.262,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Cubs45c10,148$4,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,579.5673149.4%361 W · 370 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98b1…d855backed Brewers53c10,014$5,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,666.863531.4%11 W · 24 L-4.3wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd01a…2485backed Brewers53c10,003$5,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,701.411145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Brewers54c9,000$4,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,14098149.8%489 W · 492 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a87…4e00backed Cubs45c9,000$4,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0501741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Cubs45c8,889$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0002060%12 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fa4…e9d2backed Brewers56c8,700$4,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,828.13560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Brewers65c8,697$5,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,044.0214153.9%76 W · 65 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb1e…88d5backed Brewers56c8,000$4,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,5207058.6%41 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Cubs44c7,275$3,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,224.1213353.4%71 W · 62 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Brewers50c6,721$3,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,364.2754941%225 W · 324 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e62…ec52backed Cubs45c6,700$3,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,015666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+26.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x016e…c700backed Brewers56c6,250$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,75024154.4%131 W · 110 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Brewers52c6,115$3,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,960.739,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Brewers56c5,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2007139.4%28 W · 43 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb90…87b7backed Brewers55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,250650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb236…0ce5backed Cubs46c5,000$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,300633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-42%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Cubs45c5,000$2,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,254.9922142.1%93 W · 128 L-16.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x164f…deb3backed Cubs47c5,000$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,349.9910647.2%50 W · 56 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-10.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked Brewers53c5,000$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,349.987349.3%36 W · 37 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ff…252ebacked Brewers55c4,800$2,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1601346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Cubs46c4,500$2,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0701050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+33.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6ab…5eb9backed Brewers59c4,388$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,788.084461.4%27 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb406…4964backed Brewers54c4,353$2,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,002.5110154.5%55 W · 46 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Brewers27c4,102$1,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,994.1630255.6%168 W · 134 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Cubs46c4,010$1,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,844.511544.3%51 W · 64 L-6.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8bcc…2077backed Brewers54c3,900$2,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,794250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Brewers55c3,620$1,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6292045%9 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-17.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fae…3488backed Brewers56c3,572$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,571.5918349.2%90 W · 93 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Brewers80c3,560$2,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.7947745.7%218 W · 259 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70f9…e036backed Brewers55c3,500$1,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5751070%7 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+29.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe0dd…e156backed Cubs45c3,333$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9a0…9081backed Cubs47c3,331$1,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,565.541258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc903…9f8fbacked Brewers54c3,200$1,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4723100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d0f…a318backed Brewers56c3,130$1,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,377.2540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3389…62d9backed Brewers55c3,000$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3508562.4%53 W · 32 L+6.3wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a32…6d7ebacked Cubs45c3,000$1,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3359651%49 W · 47 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd325…a3bcbacked Brewers55c2,906$1,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,307.81366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+38.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc75f…5b1ebacked Cubs46c2,897$1,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,332.55425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-52.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcce0…6633backed Cubs45c2,733$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,229.75955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Cubs46c2,723$1,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,252.751,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd958…0e3cbacked Cubs47c2,700$1,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,269333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9353…4229backed Brewers56c2,679$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,178.57560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed Cubs45c2,669$1,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,201.157548%36 W · 39 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b98…41b0backed Cubs45c2,642$1,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,18910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Brewers31c2,569$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,776.8179740.4%322 W · 475 L-19.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed Cubs48c2,567$1,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,234.0920747.8%99 W · 108 L-11.6wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf41e…d27dbacked Brewers53c2,536$1,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,191.8522546.2%104 W · 121 L-10.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Cubs60c2,445$1,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,461.937341.1%30 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fe6…9982backed Cubs47c2,400$1,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,128366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd73b…70adbacked Brewers55c2,382$1,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,071.8214453.5%77 W · 67 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1331…3d82backed Brewers68c2,226$1,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.4714966.4%99 W · 50 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e4a…311cbacked Brewers55c2,220$1,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99912247.5%58 W · 64 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0644…cd11backed Cubs46c2,173$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21cb…d3b1backed Brewers55c2,096$1,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943.34333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Brewers71c2,044$1,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.846,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Cubs1c2,005$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.875053.8%19 W · 486 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Cubs46c2,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92093240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf680…63eabacked Cubs47c2,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f73…8d13backed Brewers55c1,998$1,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$906.23953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a00…8734backed Cubs4c1,985$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.43026.7%8 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2b2…d101backed Brewers56c1,964$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.291546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43a8…e097backed Brewers56c1,930$1,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$849.27475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+47.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc39d…d87fbacked Brewers56c1,929$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$848.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2e5…c3d4backed Brewers55c1,918$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$867.8114459%85 W · 59 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2085…8ad2backed Cubs47c1,909$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6123…b735backed Brewers54c1,908$1,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$877.92100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+242.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd724…b805backed Cubs48c1,821$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.182152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.