MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9b323ae665e5714feb9bb4bc664cc07577b1f970494075126d4d091abfb183b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $144,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $140,327
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $144,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3672…edbdbacked Chicago Cubs | 62c | 48,540$30,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,194.8 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -11.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Chicago Cubs | 62c | 35,116$21,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,765.8 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 32,439$12,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,283.28 | 387 | 51.9%201 W · 186 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 29,913$10,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,108.15 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 28,521$10,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,968.05 | 302 | 55.6%168 W · 134 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Chicago Cubs | 68c | 15,516$10,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,506.55 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 10,000$3,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,300 | 564 | 51.1%288 W · 276 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 9,173$3,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,778.99 | 631 | 52.6%332 W · 299 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b86…0669backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 5,202$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,252.26 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…366bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 4,750$1,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,062.5 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 68c | 3,993$2,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,715.24 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 2,972$1,873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,872.51 | 342 | 45%154 W · 188 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…74a8backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 2,425$1,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,552 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09f8…e156backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 2,250$1,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,462.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823c…0425backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 2,176$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,349.11 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 320 | 42.8%137 W · 183 L | -23.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Chicago Cubs | 62c | 975.44$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.67 | 731 | 49.4%361 W · 370 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 900$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Chicago Cubs | 10c | 872$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.12 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…3d95backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 541$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.83 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +7.0wins | +0.21per pick | 55cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe544…3cfcbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae81…f04bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 446.51$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.37 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…cbfcbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 173$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.99 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f55…535dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 135.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…423fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 132$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.84 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Milwaukee Brewers | 32c | 124.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.52 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 118.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.42 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 111$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.71 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bb…c285backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 70$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b36…fd74backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x539e…3139backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 104 | 51.9%54 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a1…435cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…131fbacked Chicago Cubs | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cubs vs. BrewersBrewers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.