MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3ebfb9dbe9d874cae7e25247d36c6ed59ac7e6548cd7c6f2b20859ccbba3e8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 43c | 6,942$3,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,939.67 | 308 | 42.9%132 W · 176 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 57c | 5,869$3,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,345.21 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 57c | 3,000$1,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,710 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Over | 43c | 3,000$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,710 | 342 | 45%154 W · 188 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Under | 58c | 2,379$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 59c | 1,686$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.66 | 115 | 44.3%51 W · 64 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 42c | 1,556$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.67 | 731 | 49.4%361 W · 370 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Over | 43c | 1,200$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684 | 240 | 40.8%98 W · 142 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…5b6fbacked Over | 43c | 1,163$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked Under | 56c | 966.09$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.01 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Under | 56c | 600$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedae…584fbacked Under | 56c | 600$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x279b…04f5backed Under | 59c | 589.99$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.1 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Under | 58c | 498.28$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Over | 42c | 489.74$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.05 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Over | 43c | 413.21$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.53 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 57c | 413.21$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.53 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019e…af1dbacked Under | 58c | 388$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.04 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -5.3wins | -0.33per pick | 52cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 42c | 373.33$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.53 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 56c | 299.98$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.99 | 667 | 51.9%346 W · 321 L | +30.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 44c | 238$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.28 | 519 | 53.2%276 W · 243 L | -24.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Under | 56c | 212.28$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.58 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Under | 57c | 206.48$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.7 | 564 | 51.1%288 W · 276 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2626…93abbacked Over | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 197 | 47.2%93 W · 104 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 42c | 142.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.86 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa920…4c9bbacked Over | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Under | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21b4…e064backed Under | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 43c | 69.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 258 | 54.3%140 W · 118 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 42c | 63.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077f…373ebacked Under | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Under | 59c | 55.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked Over | 41c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed Over | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x539e…3139backed Under | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5this page
- Cubs vs. BrewersBrewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.